Free-agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna signed with the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday for one year and $18 million. Ozuna's exit leaves the St. Louis Cardinals to cobble together an outfield for 2020. For the Redbirds, the outfield picture is as clear as mud heading into spring training.
Ozuna
Ozuna gave every indication that he wanted to return to St. Louis. He posted it on social media and told the news media. Ozuna even changed agents.
But the Cardinals were far less interested in having Ozuna on the 2020 Cardinals than they were the 2018 incarnation of the club. The St. Louis front office monitored Ozuna's market until the end, but were not willing to go to $18 million on a one-year contract for their cleanup hitter of two years. This even though they extended the one-year, $17.8 million qualifying offer to Ozuna in November.
Ozuna
underwhelmed after the Cardinals acquired him from the Marlins at the
height of his value. Expecting Ozuna to ever again approach his 2017 line of .312/.376/.548 (.388 wOBA, 143 wRC+) with a .353 BABIP seemed curious. Ozuna's BABIP fell back to earth in 2018 (.309) before bottoming out in 2019 (.259). The decline in BABIP deflated his offensive production. And with the Cardinals, Ozuna's batting line was closer to league average than elite.
The chilly due diligence the Cardinals used is not terribly surprising. The St. Louis front office failed to ascertain the extent of Ozuna's injured shoulder before the 2018 season. Then John Mozeliak, president of baseball operations, conducted a local-media tour, pinning the blame on Ozuna and setting him up as the scapegoat for any shoulder issues that might sap Big Bear's batting in 2019. It's evident that Ozuna's market would have had to deflate even more for the Cards to sign him.
The Braves are buying low on Ozuna, just like they did Josh Donaldson a year ago. As with the All-Star third baseman, the Braves have inked Ozuna to a pillow contract. Atlanta won't have to worry about how Ozuna's poor left-field defense will age over the duration of his contract. They're betting Big Bear will be motivated to hit his way to a big contract next winter, and that production will more than offset his fielding.
Arenado
The
Cardinals and Colorado Rockies have discussed all-world third baseman
Nolan Arenado in recent weeks. At the winter warm-up this weekend, the
St. Louis brass were not willing to close any doors on adding to the
roster, but they also made clear that they had limited financial
flexibility for 2020. On Sunday, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich seemed to shut
the door on an Arenado trade, stating that the All-Star would be in
purple and black on opening day. But Arenado responded by sounding off to the media,
sharing that he felt disrespected by Bridich.
How
this drama changes the dynamics of Arenado trade negotiations is anyone's
guess. But there's no reason to disbelieve Bill DeWitt, Jr.'s weekend statement
that the Cards could not add a salary of $35 million to 2020 payroll
without clearing space. So it's safe to say that St. Louis would have been hard
pressed to clear enough payroll to get under ownership's self-imposed
salary cap in order to acquire Arenado, and his $35 million 2020 salary, if the
organization had beaten the Braves' $18 million offer to Ozuna for 2020.
Signing Ozuna would have made it incredibly difficult—if not impossible—for St. Louis to trade for Arenado. With Ozuna going to Atlanta, there's still a chance. However slim.
Cardinals OF
On the field, it seems likely the Cardinals can approximate Ozuna's production, which totaled 5.4 fWAR between 2018 and 2019. As a general rule, 2.0 wins is about league average. Ozuna's subpar fielding and lukewarm offense combined to make him better than average, but not so far above that the combination of Dexter Fowler, Harrison Bader, Tyler O'Neill, Lane Thomas, Justin Williams, and Austin Dean won't be able to approximate it.
Then there's stud prospect Dylan Carlson, the reigning Texas League player of the year who Baseball America just ranked 10th on its Top 100 prospects list. It's possible that Carlson could make the St. Louis roster out of spring training. But it seems more likely that the Cards will break camp with Bader as the primary center fielder; high-priced veteran Dexter Fowler in a corner; and some combination of Thomas, O'Neill, Dean, Williams, and Tommy Edman in the other corner. If one of the AAAA types doesn't grab an everyday corner outfield job by throat with his bat n the season's opening months, and Carlson continues to hit AAA pitching like he did at the tail end of last year, the 21-year-old might very well arrive in St. Louis for good by the All-Star break and stake his claim to an everyday job.
Wednesday, January 22, 2020
Sunday, January 12, 2020
St. Louis Cardinals Trade MLB Outfield Depth to the Tampa Bay Rays for Prospects. Again.
The St. Louis Cardinals traded to the Tampa Bay Rays:
Martinez's terrible fielding is the reason he has been tied to American League clubs in trade speculation the last couple of offseasons. Martinez was an outfielder/first baseman only because he had to be one or the other in the NL. Now Cafecito will get to play the position that best fits his skill set: Designated Hitter.
But how good of a hitter is Martinez really? Last year exampled his limitations.
Martinez's initial season with the Cards showed tremendous promise. His PA/HR of 21.9 was well above the MLB average of 30.3. Combined with a healthy BABIP, he put up a .376 wOBA that was enough to turn eyes blind to his glaring defensive shortcomings. Martinez's 2018 numbers eroded as primarily a full-time player. His BABIP remained high, as did his average, but his OBP and SLG dropped. While still better than MLB overall, his PA/HR rate increased to 29.9, slightly lower than 33.1 big-league average.
Last season, Martinez's BABIP dipped. It was still well above .300, but the drop plus his increased K rate saw his BA fall by over 30 points. He also hit dingers are a far lower rate. Cafecito's PA/HR rose to 37.3 in 2019, the year of the homer, as the league average fell to 27.5. This coincided with Martinez's average exit velocity falling from 90.4 mph and 90.7 mph in 2017 and 2018 to 88.6 mph last season.
All of this is to say that Martinez was always more useful to an AL club than the Cardinals, who can't hide his putrid field at the DH. With Martinez's decline in homer hitting as well as exit velocity, it's understandable why St. Louis is no longer willing to structure its roster on the idea that he will hit enough to sufficiently mitigate his defense. Especially with Rangel Ravelo's 2019 performance and the redundancy he created with Martinez on the 40-man roster.
From the Rays perspective, Martinez is cheap and under club control for two more years. They don't care about his inability to field because he won't play defense in the AL. And there's enough quality offense in his past to believe in his ability to bounce back thanks to a good ol' fashioned change of scenery.
Arozarena has not displayed much home run pop in his minor-league career. He rose through the Cardinals system on the strength of his hit tool. Arozarena can put the bat to the ball. He doesn't K a lot, and can lash base hits.
In 2019, the Cards started him in Double-A after he struggled in his initial promotion to Triple-A in 2018. Arozarena responded by destroying the Texas League, but without hitting dingers. The Cardinals quickly promoted him to Memphis where he maintained his hot bat.
It's not surprising that Arozarena hit well in the Pacific Coast League last year. MLB introduced the major-league baseball into Triple-A last year and PCL hitters feasted off of it. In 2019, the PCL as a league hit .277/.354/.477 with an OPS of .831.
The driving cause of this offensive uprising was the home run. The PA/HR for the PCL was 26.2, a touch higher than Arozarena's 23.6 over 283 plate appearances. Inasmuch as we can look at the smattering of partial seasons that make up Arozarena's minor-league stats, he has had two stretches of above-average homer production. And one of those was with the juiced MLB ball last year in Triple-A.
Arozarena's home-run slugging matters because of questions about his defensive position. He can absolutely fly. But Zrozarena's speed has not translated to good defense in center field. In fact, most reports from prospect watchers rate him as at best average in center.
With Kevin Kiermaier still a Ray, that likely won't matter much. Tampa Bay will thus deploy Arozarena primarily at a corner. Playing left or right, Arozarena's power profile will be more important than if he was in center. How MLB's adjustment of the baseball will impact his home-run hitting will impact all batters, but few as intriguingly as Arozarena. If MLB changes the ball and Arozarena's home-run hitting sags, will he be able to find enough extra-base hits inside the park to justify playing a corner?
The Cards never felt compelled to answer that question in 2019, despite injuries opening the door to playing Arozarena as a regular. Instead, manager Mike Shildt went with Tommy Edman, who actually hit worse that Arozarena in Triple-A in 2019 before his promotion, over the professional outfielder. It consequently feels like Arozarena fell lower on the Cardinals' organizational depth chart than, say, Harrison Bader, Tyler O'Neill, Lane Thomas, or Dylan Carlson.
I don't think that the club made this trade as a precursor to another. The Cards didn't make this trade because they are near a deal with Marcell Ozuna. Nor did they make it in order to go after Nolan Arendo. That being said, John Mozeliak values depth and Liberatore represents the type of quality prospect depth that undeniably strengthens their hand when negotiating trades.
Rodriguez is a catcher who can hit, but might not stay at the position. He's a lottery ticket at this point, who will be fun to watch during his minor-league career. Organizations find bats playing time, just ask Cafecito. And Rodriguez could grow into just such a hitter.
Liberatore is the type of pitcher one can see the Cardinals developing into a top-flight big-leaguer. And Rodriguez is a fun lottery ticket who could turn into another Allen Craig type of hitter in St. Louis. Both could be dealt to help the Cardinals win now, which they are built to do, or held onto to help the Cardinals win in the future.
- Jose Martinez;
- Randy Arozarena; and
- One Competitive Balance draft pick in Round A.
- Matthew Liberatore;
- Edgardo Rodriguez; and
- One Competitive Balance draft pick in Round B.
Jose Martinez
Martinez can't field any position. He is truly horrendous at defense. This limits his usefulness to a National League club.Martinez's terrible fielding is the reason he has been tied to American League clubs in trade speculation the last couple of offseasons. Martinez was an outfielder/first baseman only because he had to be one or the other in the NL. Now Cafecito will get to play the position that best fits his skill set: Designated Hitter.
But how good of a hitter is Martinez really? Last year exampled his limitations.
Martinez's initial season with the Cards showed tremendous promise. His PA/HR of 21.9 was well above the MLB average of 30.3. Combined with a healthy BABIP, he put up a .376 wOBA that was enough to turn eyes blind to his glaring defensive shortcomings. Martinez's 2018 numbers eroded as primarily a full-time player. His BABIP remained high, as did his average, but his OBP and SLG dropped. While still better than MLB overall, his PA/HR rate increased to 29.9, slightly lower than 33.1 big-league average.
Last season, Martinez's BABIP dipped. It was still well above .300, but the drop plus his increased K rate saw his BA fall by over 30 points. He also hit dingers are a far lower rate. Cafecito's PA/HR rose to 37.3 in 2019, the year of the homer, as the league average fell to 27.5. This coincided with Martinez's average exit velocity falling from 90.4 mph and 90.7 mph in 2017 and 2018 to 88.6 mph last season.
All of this is to say that Martinez was always more useful to an AL club than the Cardinals, who can't hide his putrid field at the DH. With Martinez's decline in homer hitting as well as exit velocity, it's understandable why St. Louis is no longer willing to structure its roster on the idea that he will hit enough to sufficiently mitigate his defense. Especially with Rangel Ravelo's 2019 performance and the redundancy he created with Martinez on the 40-man roster.
From the Rays perspective, Martinez is cheap and under club control for two more years. They don't care about his inability to field because he won't play defense in the AL. And there's enough quality offense in his past to believe in his ability to bounce back thanks to a good ol' fashioned change of scenery.
Randy Arozarena
Speaking of BABIP and lowish homer rates, Randy Arozarena will also move from the St. Louis to Tampa Bay.Arozarena has not displayed much home run pop in his minor-league career. He rose through the Cardinals system on the strength of his hit tool. Arozarena can put the bat to the ball. He doesn't K a lot, and can lash base hits.
In 2019, the Cards started him in Double-A after he struggled in his initial promotion to Triple-A in 2018. Arozarena responded by destroying the Texas League, but without hitting dingers. The Cardinals quickly promoted him to Memphis where he maintained his hot bat.
It's not surprising that Arozarena hit well in the Pacific Coast League last year. MLB introduced the major-league baseball into Triple-A last year and PCL hitters feasted off of it. In 2019, the PCL as a league hit .277/.354/.477 with an OPS of .831.
The driving cause of this offensive uprising was the home run. The PA/HR for the PCL was 26.2, a touch higher than Arozarena's 23.6 over 283 plate appearances. Inasmuch as we can look at the smattering of partial seasons that make up Arozarena's minor-league stats, he has had two stretches of above-average homer production. And one of those was with the juiced MLB ball last year in Triple-A.
Arozarena's home-run slugging matters because of questions about his defensive position. He can absolutely fly. But Zrozarena's speed has not translated to good defense in center field. In fact, most reports from prospect watchers rate him as at best average in center.
With Kevin Kiermaier still a Ray, that likely won't matter much. Tampa Bay will thus deploy Arozarena primarily at a corner. Playing left or right, Arozarena's power profile will be more important than if he was in center. How MLB's adjustment of the baseball will impact his home-run hitting will impact all batters, but few as intriguingly as Arozarena. If MLB changes the ball and Arozarena's home-run hitting sags, will he be able to find enough extra-base hits inside the park to justify playing a corner?
The Cards never felt compelled to answer that question in 2019, despite injuries opening the door to playing Arozarena as a regular. Instead, manager Mike Shildt went with Tommy Edman, who actually hit worse that Arozarena in Triple-A in 2019 before his promotion, over the professional outfielder. It consequently feels like Arozarena fell lower on the Cardinals' organizational depth chart than, say, Harrison Bader, Tyler O'Neill, Lane Thomas, or Dylan Carlson.
Matthew Liberatore
Liberatore fits the profile of a Cardinals pitching prospect in that he's athletic and has multiple pitches. What's more, he's a southpaw, the handedness the Cards targeted at the 2018 trade deadline when they shipped out Tommy Pham for Genesis Cabrera and Justin Williams. They are also getting the portsider early enough in his development for the organization to help him grow in his development.I don't think that the club made this trade as a precursor to another. The Cards didn't make this trade because they are near a deal with Marcell Ozuna. Nor did they make it in order to go after Nolan Arendo. That being said, John Mozeliak values depth and Liberatore represents the type of quality prospect depth that undeniably strengthens their hand when negotiating trades.
Edgardo Rodriguez
Rodriguez is a catcher who can hit, but might not stay at the position. He's a lottery ticket at this point, who will be fun to watch during his minor-league career. Organizations find bats playing time, just ask Cafecito. And Rodriguez could grow into just such a hitter.
Draft Picks
Competitive draft picks in Round A are made between the first and second round. Round B fall between the second and third. Therefore, the Cards traded down and the Rays traded up with this deal.Verdict
I like this trade for the Cardinals. They traded from their big-league outfield depth to make their organization stronger and deeper. It was time for Martinez to transition to his natural position of DH. And Arozarena's home-run-light and BABIP-heavy offense make him a question at the plate the Cards were unlikely to answer in 2020, if ever.Liberatore is the type of pitcher one can see the Cardinals developing into a top-flight big-leaguer. And Rodriguez is a fun lottery ticket who could turn into another Allen Craig type of hitter in St. Louis. Both could be dealt to help the Cardinals win now, which they are built to do, or held onto to help the Cardinals win in the future.
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