Not surprisingly, some of the commentary and analysis of Bader this offseason has focused on the swinging strike. This post is going to do the opposite. It will focus on Bader's fortunes when he put the bat to the ball.
Why? Look at his top-line stats in the table below.
2018 vs. 2019: Harrison Bader
Bader reduced his swinging-strike rate from 2018 to 2019. He also cut down on his K%. Where did the bottom fall out? His Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP).
Bader posted an astronomical BABIP in 2018. It was unlikely to stay that high in 2019. It didn't. But it was also unlikely to completely bottom out like it did in 2019. At the topline, it appears that Bader was about as unlucky on batted balls in 2019 as he was luck in 2018. But what do his more granular splits reveal?
2018 vs. 2019: Bader on Grounders
The MLB average on groundballs in 2018 and 2019 was .236. To say that Bader did well on grounders in 2018 is an understatement. His batting line on groundballs was off the charts. His BA on grounders (which, for grounders, is by default BABIP as well) was the fourth highest in baseball among batters with 70 PAs or more ending in a groundball. In 2019, Bader's BA on grounders tied for 335th.
Bader's falloff in BA on grounders should not be a huge surprise. But what is striking is how a player with his speed fell off so far, and to below average. It's safe to expect an uptick in 2020, but how much of one?
2018 vs. 2019: Bader on Liners
In 2018, MLB players combined to bat .687 on line drives. The following year, that number fell to .680. Batter performance on liners is pretty consistently excellent, just as one would expect.
Bader's production dipped a little bit on liners. But that is not the source of his offensive problems. The issue is how many fewer liners he hit in 2018 than 2019, by Fangraphs. Bader's line-drive rate fell off by quite a bit. So his excellent offensive production on liners made up a smaller share of his batted-ball results, which in turn deflated his overall batting stats.
2018 vs. 2019: Bader on Flies
In 2018, MLBers batted .254 on flies. They hit .230 last year. So there is some volatility in BA on flies.
Bader increased the number flyballs he hit by quite a bit. And his production on flies increased significantly across the board. From BA to wOBA, Bader's seeming embrace of the flyball revolution led to him being more productive in this category of lifted hits.
The problem is that Bader was nowhere near as potent on flies in 2019 as he was on liners in 2018 or 2019. This means that Bader's increased production on the larger number of flyballs he hit was insufficient to offset the decreased share of liners, the most productive type of contact, in his batted-ball profile.
On the surface, Bader's BABIP appears to make him a solid bounceback candidate in 2020. His BABIP dip from 2018 to 2019 is humungous. His 2019 BABIP of .268 is well below the .298. But the problem is that Bader's 17.4 LD% was lower than the league rate of 21.4% last year. It is unlikely that Bader's BABIP will rise closer to the MLB average of around .300 if he is hitting liners at a below-average rate like he did 2019.
Thus, the most important factor in Bader's 2020 production is not reducing his whiffs or strikeouts. It will be quality of contact. Whether Bader hits enough to justify his presence on the lineup car will hinge on whether he is able to return to hitting liners at an above-average rate this year like he did in 2018.
Bader increased the number flyballs he hit by quite a bit. And his production on flies increased significantly across the board. From BA to wOBA, Bader's seeming embrace of the flyball revolution led to him being more productive in this category of lifted hits.
The problem is that Bader was nowhere near as potent on flies in 2019 as he was on liners in 2018 or 2019. This means that Bader's increased production on the larger number of flyballs he hit was insufficient to offset the decreased share of liners, the most productive type of contact, in his batted-ball profile.
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On the surface, Bader's BABIP appears to make him a solid bounceback candidate in 2020. His BABIP dip from 2018 to 2019 is humungous. His 2019 BABIP of .268 is well below the .298. But the problem is that Bader's 17.4 LD% was lower than the league rate of 21.4% last year. It is unlikely that Bader's BABIP will rise closer to the MLB average of around .300 if he is hitting liners at a below-average rate like he did 2019.
Thus, the most important factor in Bader's 2020 production is not reducing his whiffs or strikeouts. It will be quality of contact. Whether Bader hits enough to justify his presence on the lineup car will hinge on whether he is able to return to hitting liners at an above-average rate this year like he did in 2018.
Note: For this post, I used the Fangraphs batted-ball data instead of Baseball Savant (which includes pop-ups [PU] in its batted-ball percentage tables) in order to use the Fangraphs splits data on batted-ball types.
If he retooled his swing to elevate the ball, is it possible that’s not a good fit for his skills? Perhaps it resulted in worse quality of contact on grounders (ie, rather than hitting the ball hard at a low angle, his groundballs were mid-hit more often)? Maybe, as a strong guy with elite speed, he should focus more on hitting the ball lower, to beat out grounders and line the ball into the gaps? I’m not generally one to encourage batters to hit the ball less well, but maybe he’s one of the exceptions?
ReplyDelete*mis-hit, not “mid-hit”
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