Can Carlos Martinez save the St. Louis Cardinals from left-handed batters?

The St. Louis Cardinals are asking Mike Shildt to manager with one hand behind his back.

During the offseason, there was a lot of talk about the Cardinals being “all in” for the 2019 season. They made a big splash by trading for Paul Goldschmidt. But the team failed to address a glaring team need: Left-handed pitching.

To be sure, having a healthy Carlos Martinez was part of the plan. Martinez’s health and the organization’s handling of it is a discussion for another time. Regardless of Martinez’s health, the Cardinals clearly structured their roster so that Michael Wacha would be in the rotation and Adam Wainwright would have every opportunity to be in it. The organization also plainly assessed Dakota Hudson as the sixth-best rotation option. When Martinez was unable to start the season in the rotation, Hudson won a competition in name only by staying healthy throughout spring training.

While Hudson has been the focus of justified criticism, the problem is much larger than just him. Let’s look at how opposing left-handed batsmen have hit against each of the Cardinals’ five starters so far this young season. You may want to keep children from viewing the tables, because they’re graphic in nature.

Miles Mikolas vs. LHB

TBF	K%	BB%	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	wOBA	FIP
99	17.2	8.1	.247	.323	.472	.225	.339	5.73

Jack Flaherty vs. LHB

TBF	K%	BB%	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	wOBA	FIP
88	21.6	6.8	.284	.330	.494	.210	.347	4.77

Wainwright vs. LHB

TBF	K%	BB%	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	wOBA	FIP
84	14.3	8.3	.320	.373	.627	.307	.406	6.62

Wacha vs. LHB

TBF	K%	BB%	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	wOBA	FIP
71	22.5	14.1	.246	.352	.459	.213	.339	5.04

Hudson vs. LHB

TBF	K%	BB%	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	wOBA	FIP
101	16.8	14.9	.388	.475	.729	.341	.493	5.84

Wainwright and Hudson have been so bad against left-handed batters this year that their stats are cartoonish. Their eye-popping horribleness serves to deaden the senses against how bad the other three starters have been. One starter has a FIP against opposing portside hitters that is below 5.00 and that’s Flahert at 4.77. Every starter is allow an Isolated Power (ISO, which is Slugging Percentage minus the singles) over .200.

Making matters worse is the bullpen.

An organization that prioritizes pitching depth had but one major-league ready southpaw reliever on opening day: Andrew Miller, who they signed during the offseason. The problem is that the once-great Miller isn’t great anymore. With each appearance, he seems more like fellow portsider Brett Cecil, a failed free-agent signing. It’s gotten so bad that Shildt now turns to Tyler Webb, a perfectly meh lefthander who should never be a manager’s first option against the opposing team’s best left-handed hitter in the middle or late innings. But here we are.

The St. Louis front office has failed. The organization’s failure to develop lefty relievers or identify quality southpaws in free agency has left the club with a significant weakness. And it’s Shildt who is left holding the bag, unable to bridge the gap between three replacement-level righty starters who can’t left-handed hitters out and Jordan Hicks. Too often the choice boils down to which reliever is the least bad option to face one or two opposing left-handed bats in the middle or late innings. It’s unacceptable in May, to say nothing of October for this “all in” Cardinals of 2019.

The front office’s incompetence in this area means that the Cardinals must have Martinez healthy and effective. The best pitcher in the organization must reinforce a bullpen with too many ineffective arms. With the bad pitching against lefties from start to end, it’s no wonder that Shildt is daydreaming about using Martinez — who the organization says can’t pitch in the rotation due to shoulder weakness — at a 100-IP pace in relief. With competence hard to come by, Shildt is salivating at the idea of excellence. After managing without much in the way of left-handed pitching options for the first quarter of the season, who can blame him?

Is there hope for Dakota Hudson?

St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Dakota Hudson has not pitched well since breaking spring training as a member of the big-league rotation, but there’s reason to expect the rookie to improve.

Hudson’s Triple-A season helps us set our expectations.

It’s sometimes easy to forget because stats begin anew at each level of pro ball a player reaches, but Hudson was very good last year for Triple-A Memphis in the Pacific Coast League.

IP	K%	BB%	HR/9	GB%	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP
111.2	18.4	8.0	0.08	57.5	.313	78.5	2.50	3.54

That is a good line for a starting pitcher. It’s not a great line by any means. But it’s good. And that’s about what Hudson’s ceiling as a big-league starter is:  good, not great.

The righty is not — and has never been — a strikeout machine. Hudson’s strength is his power sinker, with which he pounds the bottom of the strike zone, inducing grounders. He doesn’t generate a lot of whiffs or strikeouts. And despite his velocity, this makes him something of a throwback to the Dave Duncan era.

Hudson’s minor-league profile thus helps us form our expectations for him in St. Louis. We should not expect Jack Flahert-like strikeouts. That’s not the type of pitcher that Hudson is. Instead, we should expect grounders by the bunches. In order to be an effective major-leaguer, that is what Hudson must do.

Hudson’s MLB performance has been marred by allowing too many homers and walks.

Hudson is not going to strike out a lot of batters. That means that he has less of a margin of error. The righty can’t afford to issue too many walks. So far in the majors, Hudson has done just that.

But walks aren’t the only problem he has faced. Perhaps relatedly, Hudson has given up a lot of homers. Consider the following table, which compares Hudson’s 2018 Triple-A numbers to his 2019 MLB numbers through play on May 6.

Level	IP	K%	BB%	HR/9	GB%	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP
AAA ‘18	111.2	18.4	8.0	0.08	57.5	.313	78.5	2.50	3.54
MLB ‘19	30.0	18.6	10.7	2.40	56.1	.319	83.3	4.80	6.37

As you can see, Hudson’s low K%, increased BB%, and astonishingly higher HR/9 have combined for some ugly numbers. This is particularly true when it comes to Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which focuses on stats that tend to be more reflective of a pitcher’s individual performance:  strikeouts, walks, and homers allowed. Home runs have been the problem for Hudson so far this year.

Hudson is giving up harder contact.

The Statcast data on the indispensable Baseball Savant fleshes out what the homers allowed suggests. Hudson is giving up a lot more harder contact this year as a starter than he did last year as a reliever. Hudson’s average exit velocity against has gone up from 83.3 to 90.3.

A “barrel” is a category of hit that is the optimal combination of exit velocity and launch angle. In 2018, Hudson allowed just one barrel out of 80 batted balls. This year, he’s allowed 9 barrels in 99 batted balls. So it’s no surprise that his Hard Hit % has gone from 20% to 43.4%.

Simply put, opposing hitters are making harder contact against Hudson and a fair number of those harder hit balls are doing more damage. We’ll use Expected Slugging Percentage (xSLG) as a proxy for this. Hudson’s xSLG was .265 last year and it’s .483 this year.

Opposing batters are making better contact on pitches in the zone.

The most interesting data, to me, is the plate discipline data on Baseball Savant:

YR	PC	Swing %	Zone %	Zone Swing %	Zone Contact %	Chase %	Chase Contact %	Edge %	Wiff %	Meatball %	Meatball Swing %
‘18	433	43.4	48.3	62.7	87.8	25.4	52.5	40.4	22.9	6.7	65.5
‘19	545	42.2	51.7	64.5	82.4	18.3	27.1	40.4	29.1	6.8	73.0

Most interesting to me is that Hudson is the following string:

• Hudson is throwing more pitches in the strike zone in 2019 than he did in 2018.

• Hudson has increased his Whiff % by good amount.

• Opposing batters are swinging more often at pitches in the zone and whiffing more often.

• Opposing batters are chasing Hudson’s pitches out of the zone far less often (25.4% to 18.3%) and making contact with the pitches they chase far less often (52.5% to 27.1%).

Hudson has to reduce hitters' ability to hunt in hitter's counts. So far this year, six of the eight homers that Hudson has surrendered came on 1-0 counts and six of the seven doubles he has given up have come on hitter's counts.

For a sinkerballer, inducing chases down and out of the zone is important. Inducing weak contact on those pitches that leads to groundouts is the bread and butter of sinkerballing. Opposing hitters have been able to remain disciplined against Hudson and zero in on pitches to hit above the knees.

Is there reason to believe that Hudson can turn things around?

Hudson has not made a habit of surrendering homers in his pro career. In the minors, Hudson faced a total of 1,174 batters and allowed a total of 8 homers. That works out to one homer allowed every 146.75 batters faced.

Further, Hudson did not graduate to the majors and start giving up dingers at an obscene rate. Last season, the Cardinals promoted Hudson to the major-league bullpen. He notched 27 1/3 innings, facing 119 batters. And Hudson allowed no homers for the Cardinals.

As you can see above, this year has been a different story. Hudson has faced 140 batters and given up eight dingers. Or one homer every 17.5 batters.

If Hudson can start firing more first-pitch strikes, he should able to mitigate the slugging against him. This will allow him to have the upper hand and instead of opposing batsmen sitting back and waiting for pitches to drive, Hudson can induce them to expand the zone, chase outside of it, and pound more grounders into the infield turf.

Don't give up on Hudson just yet. Some good ol' fashioned Duncanism is the antidote to what ails him.

Adam Wainwright deserves better from the game that has passed him by

Adam Wainwright closed out the 2006 National League Championship Series in the most dramatic fashion and we love him for it. He could have won the Cy Young Award in 2009 and we love him for it. Wainwright could have won the Cy Young in 2013, too, and we love him for it. He’s gregarious, fun-loving, and charitable. We love him for these qualities as well.

There was a time when Wainwright had the skill to go after hitters. He refused to walk anyone. Nowadays he efficiently gives batters like Nick Cafardo intentional untintentional walks because he and Yadier Molina know that the veteran righty doesn’t have what it takes to play with the fire of that tough lefthanded bat and not get burned.

The Wainwright that was is not the Wainwright that is. He is no longer the guy that you want starting a game that the St. Louis Cardinals must win to avoid a sweep at Wrigley Field in 2019. That’s because the Wainwright that closed out postseason games in 2006 and pitched well enough to win a Cy Young no longer exists. Due to injuries and age, he doesn't have the physical skill to be reliable in must-win games.

Ben Godar wrote about how 2019 Wainwright resembles 2009 Pedro Martinez. And the comparison is apt. Watching Wainwright at Wrigley on Sunday was akin to watching Pedro get shelled at Yankee Stadium in the 2009 World Series, a game the Phillies lost en route to losing the World Series. It was difficult to watch Pedro that night because Pedro deserved better than that punctuating performance on a Hall-of-Fame career.

Wainwright deserves better, too. But as Clint Eastwood growled to Gene Hackman at the end of Unforgiven, “Deserve’s got nothing to do with it.” The opposing lineup doesn’t have time for the nostalgia with which Major League Baseball is laced. Today, the rapid evolution of the game has left even less room for nostalgia — at least as far as aging pitchers go.

There’s no disputing Waino’s guts or guile, but they will only get a veteran so far. And nowadays, that distance has been trimmed down. The cat-and-mouse game between hitters and pitchers now takes place at warp speed thanks to the proliferation of instant high-resolution video and Statcast data. It’s far easier for the opposition to learn a wily old veteran’s tricks than it ever was before.

Wainwright still has his curveball. Thank goodness. When it’s working, that glorious curveball is still poetry in motion. Some nights good ol’ Uncle Charlie makes you feel like Wainwright could freeze 2006 Carlos Beltran all over again. But too often the curve is all Wainwright has. And that’s when things get uncomfortable.

It can get ugly watching Wainwright flinging 90ish mph fastballs that are in the vicinity of the spot that Yadi calls for them. And when that happens and Wainwright’s famous curve is all he has, your heart knows what your brain and eyes are telling it:  Wainwright is near the end. He is a pale shadow of his former self. And on too many nights in 2019, Wainwright hurts the Cardinals’ chances at winning.

Wainwright has sprinkled in good performances with the bad. The overall result from this brew is not particularly heartening. The veteran owns a 4.46 ERA (107 ERA-), which okay and perfectly acceptable for a fifth starter. But that’s the rosiest stat Wainwright has to his name.

His 5.10 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP, which is based on strikeouts, walks, homers allowed, and innings pitched) is awful and equates to a 121 FIP-, which means that he has pitched 21 percentage points worse than league average after adjusting for park effects. FIP is more predictive of future ERA than past ERA, so the rest of the season isn’t looking good. One can take a bit of solace from Wainwright’s xFIP, which normalizes a pitcher’s homer rate. The righty’s xFIP of 4.74 works out to a 105 xFIP-, which is as acceptable as his ERA from a backend starter.

With Wainwright’s floaty fastball and hovering cutter, what do you think is most likely? Will the rate of homers allowed be closer to the league average rate of his high velocity peers or will Wainwright’s below average fastball yield dingers at an above average rate? That’s a tough question to ponder against the backdrop of the last 13 years. And it makes me glad that I’m not John Mozeliak or Mike Shildt, who are paid to make roster decisions.