Why didn't the St. Louis Cardinals sign Gio Gonzalez?

Nobody wanted Gio Gonazlez.

This isn’t that surprising in a free-agency market in which nobody wants Dallas Keuchel, former Cy Young Award winner. The New York Yankees signed Gonzalez in the spring, but without much of a commitment. They parted ways and Gonzalez was back on the market. On Wednesday, he signed with the Milwaukee Brewers for $2 million plus some creative incentives that allow for Craig Counsel to be Craig Counsel and Gonzalez to get paid as if he didn’t.

News of the contract left some St. Louis Cardinals fans wondering:  Why didn’t the Cardinals sign Gonzalez?

Let’s consider the question, with the reasons for signing Gonzalez and against.

The Cardinals’ starting pitching has been terrible.

We looked at how bad both the Milwaukee and St. Louis rotations had been entering this week’s series between the two clubs. Ben Godar took us on a tour of the horrors that are the stats for the Cardinals’ starters. There are no two ways about it, the St. Louis rotation has been awful this year.

Enter Gonzalez, who was a readily available arm who might reasonably be expected to improve the rotation. The lefty could displace rookie Dakota Hudson, who has options and could go get some work in Triple-A where the games don’t impact the National League pennant race, or a veteran such as Adam Wainwright or Michael Wacha, who could pitch or not someplace else.

The Cardinals could have easily afforded Gonzalez.

$2 million (plus whatever incentives) is a pittance for any MLB club, but especially these Cardinals. For all of the talk about being in it to win it in 2019, the Cards have not shoveled much money into this season.

Part of this is because the team has players on reasonable contracts. Part of this is that ownership is intent on not spending money on player salaries. Part of this is because there aren’t that many palatable options.

Gonzalez isn’t all that palatable, but for such a low price, why not take a chance? Worst comes to worst, he could shift to the bullpen, where the team could use a lefty reliever that manager Mike Shildt could trust in late-and-close situations.

Gonzalez isn’t all that good.

Nobody wanted Gonzalez before last year’s non-waiver trade deadline, either. Or at least not at the Nationals’ asking price. The lefty fell to the Brew Crew, who traded for him in a waiver wire deal.

Why didn’t anybody want Gonzalez? He wasn’t that good. For the Nats, Gonzalez made 27 starts that spanned 145 2/3 innings with 4.57 ERA (111 ERA-), 4.25 FIP (104 FIP-), and 4.44 xFIP (109). In five starts with the Brewers over 25 1/3 innings, the southpaw posted a 2.13 ERA (52 ERA-), 3.63 FIP (88 FIP-), and 4.43 xFIP (109 xFIP-).

Gonzalez is probably a below-average starting pitcher in 2019.

The Cardinals aren’t run by Walt Jocketty, Tony La Russa, and Dave Duncan anymore.

For better and worse, the Cardinals fired Jocketty. La Russa retired and Duncan followed suit. The tried-and-true approach of acquiring an aged pitcher who was once good in the hopes that Duncan will be able to work his magic is no longer the organizational method for cobbling together a rotation on the fly.

Nowadays, the Cardinal way consists of president of baseball operations John Mozeliak picking up his red Memphis phone and hollering “Next starter up!” One of Mozeliak’s minions then makes travel arrangements. The Triple-A pitcher on schedule to start on full rest jumps on the next flight to St. Louis (or some other big-league city) to start for the Cardinals.

The Cardinals probably have pitchers in Triple-A that are as good as or better than Gonzalez.

Consider the following table, which uses the ZiPS projections for a handful of pitchers:

ZiPS Projections:  2019

Pitcher	IP	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP
A	158.1	7.90	3.92	4.38	4.37
B	119.1	8.22	4.60	4.15	4.33
C	132.1	8.23	3.74	4.49	4.51
D	64	9.28	5.34	4.08	4.24
E	137.1	7.58	3.99	4.64	4.73

You might be able to guess which projection is for which pitcher from among the group of Gonzalez, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Austin Gomber, Alex Reyes, and John Gant. But I’m not going to tell you because it doesn’t matter.

Any of these pitchers, who the Cardinals already have in the organization, can reasonably be expected to pitch as well as Gonzalez. And what they lack in veteran proveyness they make up for in potential upside. Each of them has the potential to improve the rotation this year and to continue to start for the Cardinals for years into the future — at a cheaper price now and later.

The Cardinals probably want to exhaust their internal options before looking elsewhere.

Mozeliak and company did this just last year. The Cardinals called on the youngsters when the pitcher injuries piled up. Why would we expect them to do anything different when ineffectiveness is what plagues the rotation?

Moreover, any such trade will probably disappoint us all. It won’t be for an ace. Instead, the Cardinals will probably trade for a back-end innings-eater of the Jake Westbrooke sort. Put otherwise, a pitcher of Gonzalez’s ilk. I wonder if the Mariners will be shopping Mike Leake...

Harrison Bader and the Bourjos Line

St. Louis Cardinals center fielder is the most exciting fielder to wear the birds on the bat since Hall-of-Fame shortstop Ozzie Smith. The speedster so intrigued the Cardinals front office that they traded Tommy Pham, likely a better all-around player, to the Tampa Rays in order to make the Bader the everyday center fielder.

The trade was hard to understand at the time it was made. The Cardinals received Genesis Cabrera and Justin Williams, neither of whom figure to help the Cardinals win now (though Cabrera in particular holds some promise for later). For a perpetual contender like the Cards, the trade seems at best a lateral one and that's probably being charitable.

Regardless of how Cabrera and Williams pan out, whether the trade is a success or failure will depend on Bader avoiding The Bourjos Line.

The Bourjos Line? As in Peter Bourjos? Yes.

You may recall when the Cardinals acquired the best defensive outfielder in the game via trade from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Peter Bourjos had speed to burn and a decent bat. He seemed poised for a break-out season. Fielding fond Cardinal Nation seemed like the ideal landing spot.

But Bourjos didn’t hit. Manager Mike Matheny didn’t have the patience to see if he could break out of his streak. At least not with Jon Jay, a solid hitter and decent fielder, on the roster as an alternative.

Bourjos began his first season with St. Louis as the everyday center fielder. But he never hit. Jon Jay did hit and began to take away starts from Bourjos. Ultimately, Bourjos ended the 2014 season with a batting line of .231/.294/.348 (.287 wOBA, 81 wRC+) and was used as an outfield closer rather than center field starter.

Simply put:  Bourjos did not hit enough to merit regular starts, regardless of his defensive wizardry. Not even the prospect of elite fielding, and the need to amass innings afield in order for it to generate value to the team, was enough to earn him many starts. Bourjos left St. Louis after hitting .200/.290/.333 (.271 wOBA, 70 wRC+) in 2015 as a bench outfielder.

The Cardinals have a developing situation with their glove-first center fielder. The club is set to activate Bader from the injured list. When the speed demon rejoins the active roster, here are how his offensive production will compare to the other St. Louis outfielders:

Cardinals Outfielders:  2019

Player	PA	BB%	K%	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	fWAR
Ozuna	89	11.2	23.6	.256	.348	.615	.397	150	0.6
Fowler	81	11.1	23.5	.310	.395	.423	.358	124	0.4
Martinez	60	3.3	18.3	.368	.383	.474	.365	129	0.2
Bader	50	16	28	.179	.347	.359	.311	93	0.4

The Cardinals have swapped fielding for hitting out of necessity with Bader on the IL. And it has been a resounding success. The offense has fired on all cylinders. The outfielders, in particular, have swung hot bats. This offensive prowess has allowed the club to overcome spotty pitching, particularly from the starters.

For his part, Bader is not going Full Bourjos. His walk rate is robust (though it should be noted that hitting eighth tends to help boost a batter's walk rate because the opposition tends to pitch around him more often in order to face the pitcher), so his OBP is healthy. And he is hitting for power.

Right now, Bader's Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) sits at .217, lower than one would expect for someone with his elite speed. While it’s unfair to expect a consistent return to the .358 BABIP that Bader posted in 2018, it’s more than fair to expect a return to .300 or a little bit higher. Such an increase will likely help to improve Bader’s overall line to something approaching league average. With his defense, such a line would more than justify playing him daily.

But there is also a lot of swing and miss in Bader’s game. He strikes out a lot. And it remains to be seen if the high walk rate of early 2019 is even remotely sustainable. The same can be said of the power Bader has flashed early this year.

With average batted-ball fortune, regression in his slugging, and his walk rate falling back to earth, what will Bader’s production look like? Will it dip below The Bourjos Line? And if it falls below The Bourjos Line and his teammates continue to hit well, will manager Mike Shildt reassess Bader’s role on this Cardinals team? Or will the rookie manager show the young hitter more patience than his predecessor would have?

It would be understandable for the manager to shift his philosophy for center field. With the rotation looking awful, the Redbirds will need more thump in the lineup to overcome the runs allowed the starters allow. Veering from The Bourjos Line to The Duncan Line could give them just that.

If Bader doesn't hit, which Line will Shildt walk?

Daniel Ponce de Leon replaces Michael Wacha on paper (if not in our hearts)

The St. Louis Cardinals remained in the postseason hunt last year despite a pitching staff riddled by injuries. The organization’s ability to draft and develop arms created the type of depth that kept them competitive despite importing multiple arms from the Triple-A Memphis Redbirds. One of those arms was righty Daniel Ponce de Leon, who had an impressive 2018 in the minors before the Cardinals summoned him to St. Louis, where he played out the year.

In the majors, Ponce de Leon showed off a fourseamer, which he combined with a cutter, changeup, and seldom-used curve.

Ponce de Leon Pitch Repertoire:  2018

Pitch	% Usage	MPH
Fourseam	61.79	93.88
Cutter	18.59	90.12
Change	16.52	83.66
Curve	3.10	77.38

Ponce de Leon was solid if unspectacular as a member of the Redbirds, near no-hitter notwithstanding. The righty showed that he might grow into a useful MLB arm. But just as it felt that Ponce de Leon seemed to establish that he belonged in the big leagues, his usage fell off.

St. Louis Manager Mike Shildt rarely called on the righty in relief after he was removed from the rotation. In September, Ponce de Leon made two starts (September 1 and 12) and two relief appearances (September 8 and 30). Perhaps the Cardinals were attempting to hold down his work load?

At any rate, Ponce de Leon finished 2018 with the stats in Triple-A and MLB found in the following table.

Ponce de Leon 2018:  Triple-A vs. MLB

Level	IP	K%	BB%	HR/FB	LOB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	xFIP
AAA	96.1	26.9	12.2	3.3	73.7	.272	2.24	3.75	4.83
MLB	33.0	23.5	9.9	5.6	79.6	.259	2.73	3.34	4.36

The Cardinals dispatched Ponce de Leon to Memphis after the righty failed to assert himself in the No. 5 starter derby that was boiled down to John Gant vs. Dakota Hudson, before Hudson won the job (for however long). In Triple-A, the righty has not duplicated his 2018 performance to date, but not due to the Triple-A homer craze of April. In fact, Ponce de Leon’s numbers would be far worse this year if he weren’t doing a decent job of suppressing home runs (albeit less so than a year ago).

Ponce De Leon 2019:  Triple-A

Level	IP	K%	BB%	HR/FB	LOB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	xFIP
AAA	16.2	17.8	6.9	8.3	81.1	.327	3.24	4.86	6.06

In Memphis, Ponce de Leon has not been inducing strikeouts at the level one would like to see. But the lack of walks is heartening. Normalizing the righty’s HR rate gives us an xFIP that is downright scary. But it’s 16 2/3 innings, so who feels comfortable taking early 2019 returns over what Ponce de Leon did last season?

The reality is that Ponce de Leon does not have big shoes to fill. Michael Wacha has not pitched particularly well for the Cardinals going back to 2017. There is a reason they play the games, and I don’t want to downplay the human element of adjustment-making in the ever-evolving cat-and-mouse game of batters vs. pitchers. That being said, the ZiPS projection system gives the following 2019 projections for Wacha (rest of season) and Ponce de Leon (three-year preseason), which give us an idea of how the pitcher’s respective performances project moving forward.

ZiPS Projections 2019:  Ponce De Leon vs. Wacha

Level	IP	K/9	BB/9	LOB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP
Ponce de Leon	119.3	8.22	4.60	73.0	.305	4.15	4.33
Wacha	107.0	8.10	3.68	71.1	.315	4.56	4.43

ZiPS does not remember the 2013 postseason because it didn’t watch. It’s a system that doesn’t take into account the human element. It goes by past performance, not veteran proveyness. And in doing so, ZiPS gives us reason to believe what our eyes may being telling as well even if our hearts don’t want to listen. Wacha is in a state of decline and Ponce de Leon might very well be as good of a pitcher in terms of true talent. On paper, the Cardinals don’t appear likely to lose much by calling up Ponce de Leon to fill the rotation spot vacated by the injured Wacha.