Harrison Bader and the Bourjos Line

St. Louis Cardinals center fielder is the most exciting fielder to wear the birds on the bat since Hall-of-Fame shortstop Ozzie Smith. The speedster so intrigued the Cardinals front office that they traded Tommy Pham, likely a better all-around player, to the Tampa Rays in order to make the Bader the everyday center fielder.

The trade was hard to understand at the time it was made. The Cardinals received Genesis Cabrera and Justin Williams, neither of whom figure to help the Cardinals win now (though Cabrera in particular holds some promise for later). For a perpetual contender like the Cards, the trade seems at best a lateral one and that's probably being charitable.

Regardless of how Cabrera and Williams pan out, whether the trade is a success or failure will depend on Bader avoiding The Bourjos Line.

The Bourjos Line? As in Peter Bourjos? Yes.

You may recall when the Cardinals acquired the best defensive outfielder in the game via trade from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Peter Bourjos had speed to burn and a decent bat. He seemed poised for a break-out season. Fielding fond Cardinal Nation seemed like the ideal landing spot.

But Bourjos didn’t hit. Manager Mike Matheny didn’t have the patience to see if he could break out of his streak. At least not with Jon Jay, a solid hitter and decent fielder, on the roster as an alternative.

Bourjos began his first season with St. Louis as the everyday center fielder. But he never hit. Jon Jay did hit and began to take away starts from Bourjos. Ultimately, Bourjos ended the 2014 season with a batting line of .231/.294/.348 (.287 wOBA, 81 wRC+) and was used as an outfield closer rather than center field starter.

Simply put:  Bourjos did not hit enough to merit regular starts, regardless of his defensive wizardry. Not even the prospect of elite fielding, and the need to amass innings afield in order for it to generate value to the team, was enough to earn him many starts. Bourjos left St. Louis after hitting .200/.290/.333 (.271 wOBA, 70 wRC+) in 2015 as a bench outfielder.

The Cardinals have a developing situation with their glove-first center fielder. The club is set to activate Bader from the injured list. When the speed demon rejoins the active roster, here are how his offensive production will compare to the other St. Louis outfielders:

Cardinals Outfielders:  2019

Player	PA	BB%	K%	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	fWAR
Ozuna	89	11.2	23.6	.256	.348	.615	.397	150	0.6
Fowler	81	11.1	23.5	.310	.395	.423	.358	124	0.4
Martinez	60	3.3	18.3	.368	.383	.474	.365	129	0.2
Bader	50	16	28	.179	.347	.359	.311	93	0.4

The Cardinals have swapped fielding for hitting out of necessity with Bader on the IL. And it has been a resounding success. The offense has fired on all cylinders. The outfielders, in particular, have swung hot bats. This offensive prowess has allowed the club to overcome spotty pitching, particularly from the starters.

For his part, Bader is not going Full Bourjos. His walk rate is robust (though it should be noted that hitting eighth tends to help boost a batter's walk rate because the opposition tends to pitch around him more often in order to face the pitcher), so his OBP is healthy. And he is hitting for power.

Right now, Bader's Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) sits at .217, lower than one would expect for someone with his elite speed. While it’s unfair to expect a consistent return to the .358 BABIP that Bader posted in 2018, it’s more than fair to expect a return to .300 or a little bit higher. Such an increase will likely help to improve Bader’s overall line to something approaching league average. With his defense, such a line would more than justify playing him daily.

But there is also a lot of swing and miss in Bader’s game. He strikes out a lot. And it remains to be seen if the high walk rate of early 2019 is even remotely sustainable. The same can be said of the power Bader has flashed early this year.

With average batted-ball fortune, regression in his slugging, and his walk rate falling back to earth, what will Bader’s production look like? Will it dip below The Bourjos Line? And if it falls below The Bourjos Line and his teammates continue to hit well, will manager Mike Shildt reassess Bader’s role on this Cardinals team? Or will the rookie manager show the young hitter more patience than his predecessor would have?

It would be understandable for the manager to shift his philosophy for center field. With the rotation looking awful, the Redbirds will need more thump in the lineup to overcome the runs allowed the starters allow. Veering from The Bourjos Line to The Duncan Line could give them just that.

If Bader doesn't hit, which Line will Shildt walk?