Craig Kimbrel, Greg Holland, and the risky pursuit of free-agent relievers

The Chicago Cubs announced on Wednesday a contract with veteran reliever Craig Kimbrel for 3 years and $43 million. The Cubs’ decision to sign Kimbrel immediately brought to mind the Cardinals’ decision last March to sign veteran reliever Greg Holland. Both relievers have the veteran proveyness prized by managers such as Mike Matheny and Joe Maddon. Both relievers struggled to find a taker in the free-agent market. And both closers were past their primes when they hit free agency.

Entering the 2018 season, the Cards did not need Holland to close out games. The move was driven primarily by Matheny, who needed the crutch of a Closer to get the final three outs. If Holland had pitched the way he was projected to pitch, the righty would not have made the Cards appreciably better.

There was no reason to expect Holland to pitch as badly as he did. The Cards had every reason to believe that he would be perfectly fine. And if your manager requires the crutch of a Closer to work the 9th inning, giving him a perfectly fine reliever on a one-year deal is ideal. As it worked out, Holland joined St. Louis after a 10-day stint in the minors and was a stink bomb that stunk so badly that the signing challenged the long-espoused conventional wisdom that there is no such thing as a bad one-year contract.

Holland, and Matheny’s slavish devotion to his veteran proveyness, combined to be a factor in the Cardinals failing to make the postseason last year. The Cards finished 2 1/2 games back of the Rockies for the second wild-card berth. Holland tallied three blown saves for the Cards and two pitching “losses.” Had the Cardinals not made the “win-now” move of signing Holland, the season might very well have turned out differently. But St. Louis did sign Holland to handle ninth, the veteran pitched horribly, and the Cards missed the postseason for the third straight autumn.

This is not to say that Kimbrel will be for the Cubs what Holland was for the Cardinals. Holland entering April 2018 was not as good a pitcher as Kimbrel is entering July 2019. There is very little reason to expect Kimbrel to blow up the way that Holland did. Kimbrel is better now than Holland was then, which is why Kimbrel’s contract is for three years and $43 million while Holland’s was just one year, $13 million.

But how much better? That depends on what one makes of Kimbrel’s 2018. Kimbrel’s October struggles have been poo-pooed. But 2018 was the worst season of his career. And it’s not particularly close.

Craig Kimbrel:  2011–18

Year	IP	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	fWAR
2011	77	41.5	10.5	2.10	1.52	1.94	2.8
2012	62.2	50.2	6.1	1.01	0.78	0.88	3.1
2013	67	38.0	7.8	1.21	1.93	1.95	2.2
2014	61.2	38.9	10.7	1.61	1.83	2.24	2.5
2015	59.1	36.4	9.2	2.58	2.68	2.46	1.3
2016	53	37.7	13.6	3.40	2.92	3.48	1.2
2017	69	49.6	5.5	1.43	1.42	1.50	3.2
2018	62.1	38.9	12.6	2.74	3.13	3.13	1.3

Kimbrel’s two worst seasons occurred in 2016 and 2018. They are still very good, and he sandwiched them with a sterling 2017. Nonetheless, when you consider that he is entering his age-31 season, it’s not hard to deduce that 2016 and 2018 are likely indicative of the start of his decline. And that’s without even factoring in his weird postseason last October.

And so Kimbrel’s age and his most recent season’s worth of performance combine to create a grain of salt that must be ingested when reading that the veteran is a Hall-of-Famer, the greatest closer since Mariano Rivera, or one of the best relievers of his generation. While such statements are undeniably true — just look at those stats while pitching for the Braves! — they are more true about the Kimbrel that was than the Kimbrel that is.

Kimbrel was available as a free agent in June because every organization is Major League Baseball recognizes that the best of Kimbrel is in the past and the future is murky. The number of flamethrowers working their way up through the minors nowadays probably played a part as well. Why pay a premium for a past-his-prime Kimbrel when relievers who can roughly approximate his performance are within the organization right now? That’s why no team came close to offering the $100 million Kimbrel was reportedly seeking this winter. And it’s why the Cubs were able to ink the righty to a three-year contract for $43 million.

Further muddying the waters of Kimbrel expectations is the question of his MLB readiness, with Holland as a cautionary tale. St. Louis signed Holland on March 31. The veteran joined the Cardinals bullpen on April 9, after ten days tuning up in the minors. Holland then joined the Cardinals bullpen on April 9 and pitched terribly. So bad that St. Louis cut bait on him mid-season.

Following the Cardinals’ release of Holland, he signed with the Nationals and pitched well. Holland then parlayed his success in Washington into a contract with Arizona this past offseason. And Holland has pitched very well for the D-Backs this season. With the benefit of hindsight, it’s fair to speculate that Holland would have pitched better for St. Louis had he spent more time in Florida before joining the big-league bullpen.

The Cubs and Kimbrel would be wise to avoid a similar unforced error to that committed by the Cards and Holland a year ago. That’s probably why Maddon has floated three weeks as the timeframe in comments to the media. Though there’s no indication that Kimbrel has agreed with that amount of time. Even with three weeks of prep time, Kimbrel and the Cubs are in uncharted waters.

Then there’s the elephant in the room:  What if Kimbrel joins the Cubs and pulls a Holland? The Cardinals only had to stomach eating $13 million last year when they released Holland. The idea of doing so was so unappetizing that they allowed Holland to be a burden on the big-league roster for too long in the hopes that he might right the ship.

The Cubs have guaranteed Kimbrel $43 million. It’s unclear what the organization’s appetite will be for eating any portion of that salary if Kimbrel doesn’t deliver for Chicago the way that he did for his prior three clubs. Maddon may have to manage his bullpen with an expensive and ineffective reliever occupying a roster spot for an indefinite period of time.

Even if the worst outcomes are avoided, what have the Cubs achieved? The Cubs signed Kimbrel to give Maddon a reliever for the 9th inning with the type of veteran proveyness Baseball Men cherish in a Closer. I suppose the Kimbrel brand Closer gives management and fans some peace of mind, which isn’t nothing.

And if Kimbrel pitches up to reasonable expectations for his Age 31 through 33 seasons, he’ll be a fine closer. Having the Kimbrel of 2016 and 2018 over Reliever X in the 9th might make a difference in a game or two this year, and perhaps a few more in 2020 and 2021. If Kimbrel recreates the nastiness of his peak seasons, the benefit isn’t much greater. All of this is to say that, if all goes according to plan, it seems that the Cubs paid a premium for a de minimus upgrade this year and beyond. Even if the Central continues to be as competitive as it has been so far this year, it sure looks like the Cubs deployed their payroll dry powder on the smallest roster improvement possible.