St. Louis Cardinals Trade Gossip: What type of starting pitcher will they target?

The St. Louis Cardinals rotation has been bad. The weakest link is 2013 October hero Michael Wacha, who the Cardinals banished to the bullpen and probably should designate for assignment. The Wacha demotion leaves an opening in the rotation that the club could fill externally by signing a free agent like Dallas Keuchel or by trade. A starting pitcher is the Cardinals’ most obvious need as we head into trade-rumor season.

Derrick Goold of stltoday.com participated in a recent chat and responded to a question about Keuchel in a way that helped frame the Cardinals’ approach to upgrading the rotation:

What the Cardinals aren’t sure of is what Keuchel they’d get. Is he the lefty who won the Cy Young and was one of the game’s best groundball-getters, or is he more like the recent trend as the stuff has faded a bit and he’s not the pitcher he once was. Here’s how I’ve had it explained to me, in more tangible terms:  The Cardinals would be intrigued by adding a 4.0 WAR pitcher to the rotation. Is Keuchel there? He was, not too long ago. Can he be again? Is Bumgarner? And so on. What the Cardinals are measuring that against is cost -- they don’t want a 4.0 WAR salary for a 2.0 WAR pitcher, for example -- and whether they can, in aggregate, get the same production from their committee of young pitchers, which is now Cabrera and could be Reyes, Gomber, Wacha, and Ponce de Leon at some point, If they think that group can provide, in total, a greater contribution, they’ll go that route.

To summarize, the Cardinals front office does not want to pay for veteran proveyness. They don’t want to add a name just to add a name. The Cards want to add skill in a way that will amount to a tangible upgrade over what they have in house. And apparently the club sets 4.0 WAR as the bar to clear for such an upgrade. That’s a number that feels about right, being above what one could reasonably expect from the group of internal starters the organization has.

So, what is a 4.0-WAR pitcher?

I’m going to use Fangraphs WAR, which focuses more on pitcher performance than rWAR, which Baseball-Reference uses and focuses more on runs allowed (which inherently muddies the waters a bit with fielding performance). We also know that the Cardinals tend to give greater weight to advanced metrics than traditional ERA when assessing pitchers. The following table contains the starters that posted 2.9 or more fWAR in 2018 (in order to include Zack Greinke and Dallas Keuchel). I’ve highlighted in red the starters that I think could realistically be available in the trade market this year.

2018 Starting Pitcher fWAR Leaderboard

SP	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	fWAR
Jacob deGrom	217	1.70	1.99	2.60	9.0
Max Scherzer	220.2	2.53	2.65	3.06	7.4
Justin Verlander	214	2.52	2.78	3.03	6.7
Chris Sale	158	2.11	1.98	2.31	6.2
Gerrit Cole	200.1	2.88	2.70	3.04	6.0
Patrick Corbin	200	3.15	2.47	2.61	5.9
Trevor Bauer	171.1	2.26	2.44	3.14	5.7
Luis Severino	191.1	3.39	2.95	3.10	5.5
Corey Kluber	215	2.89	3.12	3.08	5.5
Aaron Nola	212.1	2.37	3.01	3.21	5.4
Carlos Carrasco	186.2	3.33	2.98	2.92	5.0
Blake Snell	180.2	1.89	2.95	3.16	4.8
Miles Mikolas	200.2	2.83	3.28	3.67	4.3
Zack Wheeler	182.1	3.31	3.25	3.81	4.2
Mike Clevinger	200	3.02	3.52	3.86	4.2
German Marquez	196	3.77	3.40	3.10	4.2
Kyle Freeland	202.1	2.85	3.67	4.22	4.2
Noah Syndergaard	154.1	3.03	2.80	3.29	4.2
James Tallion	191	3.20	3.46	3.58	3.8
Mike Foltynewicz	183	2.85	3.37	3.77	3.8
James Paxton	160.1	3.76	3.24	3.02	3.7
Kyle Hendricks	199	3.44	3.78	3.87	3.5
Marco Gonzales	166.2	4.00	3.43	3.59	3.5
Dallas Keuchel	204.2	3.74	3.69	3.84	3.3
Clayton Kershaw	161.1	2.73	3.19	3.19	3.3
Jose Berrios	192.1	3.84	3.90	3.89	3.3
Walker Buehler	136.1	2.31	2.92	3.15	3.2
J.A. Happ	177.2	3.65	3.98	3.88	3.0
Zack Greinke	207.2	3.21	3.71	3.44	2.9

This method is admittedly flawed. One year of 3.0+ fWAR does not mean a pitcher’s true talent is that high or low. I used this as a quick-and-dirty method of illustrating just what the Cards are after and showing where some potential targets fit within that context. It’s intended to give us a better understanding of the lay of the land the Cards are attempting to navigate.

Keuchel and Greinke are brand name workhorse aces who are past their respective primes. Though still good major-league starters, the cost of adding either will be at a premium given their anticipated production, which is lower than it was. Throw in Madison Bumgarner (who merits a post of his own) and it’s easy to understand why the Cards would want to avoid the veteran proveyness price tag associated with a projected performance on par with what the Cards can expect from a Reyes or Gomber.

Looking at this list, the best fit is Scherzer because he is one of the best pitchers in baseball and is therefore the best fit on any team. This is even more true for the Cards, with their weak rotation and Scherzer’s Missouri roots. The complication, which has been well documented in the media, is Scherzer’s complex contract, which includes a lot of deferred money in order to help Washington avoid the luxury tax.

The more realistic fit in terms of cost, performance, and clubhouse fit would be Corey Kluber but for his broken arm. Given Kluber’s injured-list status, it’s now Trevor Bauer, who has posted 1.4 fWAR through play on June 4 with a 3.87 ERA, 4.08 FIP, and 4.47 xFIP while starting in the DH league. Cleveland’s rough season to date likely means they will be looking to get rid of expensive players such as Bauer, who is earning $13 million this season and has one more year of club control after 2019, while reloading. This is not to say that Bauer, with his personality, doesn’t present clubhouse questions — just that his combination of club control and talent is right in line with the Cards’ framework for bolstering their rotation and the types of moves the organization has made in the past. Moreover, the trade mechanics will be much easier to work out than they would be with the Scherzer contract.