Free-agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna signed with the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday for one year and $18 million. Ozuna's exit leaves the St. Louis Cardinals to cobble together an outfield for 2020. For the Redbirds, the outfield picture is as clear as mud heading into spring training.
Ozuna
Ozuna gave every indication that he wanted to return to St. Louis. He posted it on social media and told the news media. Ozuna even changed agents.
But the Cardinals were far less interested in having Ozuna on the 2020 Cardinals than they were the 2018 incarnation of the club. The St. Louis front office monitored Ozuna's market until the end, but were not willing to go to $18 million on a one-year contract for their cleanup hitter of two years. This even though they extended the one-year, $17.8 million qualifying offer to Ozuna in November.
Ozuna
underwhelmed after the Cardinals acquired him from the Marlins at the
height of his value. Expecting Ozuna to ever again approach his 2017 line of .312/.376/.548 (.388 wOBA, 143 wRC+) with a .353 BABIP seemed curious. Ozuna's BABIP fell back to earth in 2018 (.309) before bottoming out in 2019 (.259). The decline in BABIP deflated his offensive production. And with the Cardinals, Ozuna's batting line was closer to league average than elite.
The chilly due diligence the Cardinals used is not terribly surprising. The St. Louis front office failed to ascertain the extent of Ozuna's injured shoulder before the 2018 season. Then John Mozeliak, president of baseball operations, conducted a local-media tour, pinning the blame on Ozuna and setting him up as the scapegoat for any shoulder issues that might sap Big Bear's batting in 2019. It's evident that Ozuna's market would have had to deflate even more for the Cards to sign him.
The Braves are buying low on Ozuna, just like they did Josh Donaldson a year ago. As with the All-Star third baseman, the Braves have inked Ozuna to a pillow contract. Atlanta won't have to worry about how Ozuna's poor left-field defense will age over the duration of his contract. They're betting Big Bear will be motivated to hit his way to a big contract next winter, and that production will more than offset his fielding.
Arenado
The
Cardinals and Colorado Rockies have discussed all-world third baseman
Nolan Arenado in recent weeks. At the winter warm-up this weekend, the
St. Louis brass were not willing to close any doors on adding to the
roster, but they also made clear that they had limited financial
flexibility for 2020. On Sunday, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich seemed to shut
the door on an Arenado trade, stating that the All-Star would be in
purple and black on opening day. But Arenado responded by sounding off to the media,
sharing that he felt disrespected by Bridich.
How
this drama changes the dynamics of Arenado trade negotiations is anyone's
guess. But there's no reason to disbelieve Bill DeWitt, Jr.'s weekend statement
that the Cards could not add a salary of $35 million to 2020 payroll
without clearing space. So it's safe to say that St. Louis would have been hard
pressed to clear enough payroll to get under ownership's self-imposed
salary cap in order to acquire Arenado, and his $35 million 2020 salary, if the
organization had beaten the Braves' $18 million offer to Ozuna for 2020.
Signing Ozuna would have made it incredibly difficult—if not impossible—for St. Louis to trade for Arenado. With Ozuna going to Atlanta, there's still a chance. However slim.
Cardinals OF
On the field, it seems likely the Cardinals can approximate Ozuna's production, which totaled 5.4 fWAR between 2018 and 2019. As a general rule, 2.0 wins is about league average. Ozuna's subpar fielding and lukewarm offense combined to make him better than average, but not so far above that the combination of Dexter Fowler, Harrison Bader, Tyler O'Neill, Lane Thomas, Justin Williams, and Austin Dean won't be able to approximate it.
Then there's stud prospect Dylan Carlson, the reigning Texas League player of the year who Baseball America just ranked 10th on its Top 100 prospects list. It's possible that Carlson could make the St. Louis roster out of spring training. But it seems more likely that the Cards will break camp with Bader as the primary center fielder; high-priced veteran Dexter Fowler in a corner; and some combination of Thomas, O'Neill, Dean, Williams, and Tommy Edman in the other corner. If one of the AAAA types doesn't grab an everyday corner outfield job by throat with his bat n the season's opening months, and Carlson continues to hit AAA pitching like he did at the tail end of last year, the 21-year-old might very well arrive in St. Louis for good by the All-Star break and stake his claim to an everyday job.
No comments:
Post a Comment