- Jose Martinez;
- Randy Arozarena; and
- One Competitive Balance draft pick in Round A.
- Matthew Liberatore;
- Edgardo Rodriguez; and
- One Competitive Balance draft pick in Round B.
Jose Martinez
Martinez can't field any position. He is truly horrendous at defense. This limits his usefulness to a National League club.Martinez's terrible fielding is the reason he has been tied to American League clubs in trade speculation the last couple of offseasons. Martinez was an outfielder/first baseman only because he had to be one or the other in the NL. Now Cafecito will get to play the position that best fits his skill set: Designated Hitter.
But how good of a hitter is Martinez really? Last year exampled his limitations.
Martinez's initial season with the Cards showed tremendous promise. His PA/HR of 21.9 was well above the MLB average of 30.3. Combined with a healthy BABIP, he put up a .376 wOBA that was enough to turn eyes blind to his glaring defensive shortcomings. Martinez's 2018 numbers eroded as primarily a full-time player. His BABIP remained high, as did his average, but his OBP and SLG dropped. While still better than MLB overall, his PA/HR rate increased to 29.9, slightly lower than 33.1 big-league average.
Last season, Martinez's BABIP dipped. It was still well above .300, but the drop plus his increased K rate saw his BA fall by over 30 points. He also hit dingers are a far lower rate. Cafecito's PA/HR rose to 37.3 in 2019, the year of the homer, as the league average fell to 27.5. This coincided with Martinez's average exit velocity falling from 90.4 mph and 90.7 mph in 2017 and 2018 to 88.6 mph last season.
All of this is to say that Martinez was always more useful to an AL club than the Cardinals, who can't hide his putrid field at the DH. With Martinez's decline in homer hitting as well as exit velocity, it's understandable why St. Louis is no longer willing to structure its roster on the idea that he will hit enough to sufficiently mitigate his defense. Especially with Rangel Ravelo's 2019 performance and the redundancy he created with Martinez on the 40-man roster.
From the Rays perspective, Martinez is cheap and under club control for two more years. They don't care about his inability to field because he won't play defense in the AL. And there's enough quality offense in his past to believe in his ability to bounce back thanks to a good ol' fashioned change of scenery.
Randy Arozarena
Speaking of BABIP and lowish homer rates, Randy Arozarena will also move from the St. Louis to Tampa Bay.Arozarena has not displayed much home run pop in his minor-league career. He rose through the Cardinals system on the strength of his hit tool. Arozarena can put the bat to the ball. He doesn't K a lot, and can lash base hits.
In 2019, the Cards started him in Double-A after he struggled in his initial promotion to Triple-A in 2018. Arozarena responded by destroying the Texas League, but without hitting dingers. The Cardinals quickly promoted him to Memphis where he maintained his hot bat.
It's not surprising that Arozarena hit well in the Pacific Coast League last year. MLB introduced the major-league baseball into Triple-A last year and PCL hitters feasted off of it. In 2019, the PCL as a league hit .277/.354/.477 with an OPS of .831.
The driving cause of this offensive uprising was the home run. The PA/HR for the PCL was 26.2, a touch higher than Arozarena's 23.6 over 283 plate appearances. Inasmuch as we can look at the smattering of partial seasons that make up Arozarena's minor-league stats, he has had two stretches of above-average homer production. And one of those was with the juiced MLB ball last year in Triple-A.
Arozarena's home-run slugging matters because of questions about his defensive position. He can absolutely fly. But Zrozarena's speed has not translated to good defense in center field. In fact, most reports from prospect watchers rate him as at best average in center.
With Kevin Kiermaier still a Ray, that likely won't matter much. Tampa Bay will thus deploy Arozarena primarily at a corner. Playing left or right, Arozarena's power profile will be more important than if he was in center. How MLB's adjustment of the baseball will impact his home-run hitting will impact all batters, but few as intriguingly as Arozarena. If MLB changes the ball and Arozarena's home-run hitting sags, will he be able to find enough extra-base hits inside the park to justify playing a corner?
The Cards never felt compelled to answer that question in 2019, despite injuries opening the door to playing Arozarena as a regular. Instead, manager Mike Shildt went with Tommy Edman, who actually hit worse that Arozarena in Triple-A in 2019 before his promotion, over the professional outfielder. It consequently feels like Arozarena fell lower on the Cardinals' organizational depth chart than, say, Harrison Bader, Tyler O'Neill, Lane Thomas, or Dylan Carlson.
Matthew Liberatore
Liberatore fits the profile of a Cardinals pitching prospect in that he's athletic and has multiple pitches. What's more, he's a southpaw, the handedness the Cards targeted at the 2018 trade deadline when they shipped out Tommy Pham for Genesis Cabrera and Justin Williams. They are also getting the portsider early enough in his development for the organization to help him grow in his development.I don't think that the club made this trade as a precursor to another. The Cards didn't make this trade because they are near a deal with Marcell Ozuna. Nor did they make it in order to go after Nolan Arendo. That being said, John Mozeliak values depth and Liberatore represents the type of quality prospect depth that undeniably strengthens their hand when negotiating trades.
Edgardo Rodriguez
Rodriguez is a catcher who can hit, but might not stay at the position. He's a lottery ticket at this point, who will be fun to watch during his minor-league career. Organizations find bats playing time, just ask Cafecito. And Rodriguez could grow into just such a hitter.
Draft Picks
Competitive draft picks in Round A are made between the first and second round. Round B fall between the second and third. Therefore, the Cards traded down and the Rays traded up with this deal.Verdict
I like this trade for the Cardinals. They traded from their big-league outfield depth to make their organization stronger and deeper. It was time for Martinez to transition to his natural position of DH. And Arozarena's home-run-light and BABIP-heavy offense make him a question at the plate the Cards were unlikely to answer in 2020, if ever.Liberatore is the type of pitcher one can see the Cardinals developing into a top-flight big-leaguer. And Rodriguez is a fun lottery ticket who could turn into another Allen Craig type of hitter in St. Louis. Both could be dealt to help the Cardinals win now, which they are built to do, or held onto to help the Cardinals win in the future.
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