The St. Louis Cardinals remained in the postseason hunt last year despite a pitching staff riddled by injuries. The organization’s ability to draft and develop arms created the type of depth that kept them competitive despite importing multiple arms from the Triple-A Memphis Redbirds. One of those arms was righty Daniel Ponce de Leon, who had an impressive 2018 in the minors before the Cardinals summoned him to St. Louis, where he played out the year.
In the majors, Ponce de Leon showed off a fourseamer, which he combined with a cutter, changeup, and seldom-used curve.
Ponce de Leon Pitch Repertoire: 2018
Pitch
|
% Usage
|
MPH
|
Fourseam
|
61.79
|
93.88
|
Cutter
|
18.59
|
90.12
|
Change
|
16.52
|
83.66
|
Curve
|
3.10
|
77.38
|
Ponce de Leon was solid if unspectacular as a member of the Redbirds, near no-hitter notwithstanding. The righty showed that he might grow into a useful MLB arm. But just as it felt that Ponce de Leon seemed to establish that he belonged in the big leagues, his usage fell off.
St. Louis Manager Mike Shildt rarely called on the righty in relief after he was removed from the rotation. In September, Ponce de Leon made two starts (September 1 and 12) and two relief appearances (September 8 and 30). Perhaps the Cardinals were attempting to hold down his work load?
At any rate, Ponce de Leon finished 2018 with the stats in Triple-A and MLB found in the following table.
Ponce de Leon 2018: Triple-A vs. MLB
Level
|
IP
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HR/FB
|
LOB%
|
BABIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
AAA
|
96.1
|
26.9
|
12.2
|
3.3
|
73.7
|
.272
|
2.24
|
3.75
|
4.83
|
MLB
|
33.0
|
23.5
|
9.9
|
5.6
|
79.6
|
.259
|
2.73
|
3.34
|
4.36
|
The Cardinals dispatched Ponce de Leon to Memphis after the righty failed to assert himself in the No. 5 starter derby that was boiled down to John Gant vs. Dakota Hudson, before Hudson won the job (for however long). In Triple-A, the righty has not duplicated his 2018 performance to date, but not due to the Triple-A homer craze of April. In fact, Ponce de Leon’s numbers would be far worse this year if he weren’t doing a decent job of suppressing home runs (albeit less so than a year ago).
Ponce De Leon 2019: Triple-A
Level
|
IP
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HR/FB
|
LOB%
|
BABIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
AAA
|
16.2
|
17.8
|
6.9
|
8.3
|
81.1
|
.327
|
3.24
|
4.86
|
6.06
|
In Memphis, Ponce de Leon has not been inducing strikeouts at the level one would like to see. But the lack of walks is heartening. Normalizing the righty’s HR rate gives us an xFIP that is downright scary. But it’s 16 2/3 innings, so who feels comfortable taking early 2019 returns over what Ponce de Leon did last season?
The reality is that Ponce de Leon does not have big shoes to fill. Michael Wacha has not pitched particularly well for the Cardinals going back to 2017. There is a reason they play the games, and I don’t want to downplay the human element of adjustment-making in the ever-evolving cat-and-mouse game of batters vs. pitchers. That being said, the ZiPS projection system gives the following 2019 projections for Wacha (rest of season) and Ponce de Leon (three-year preseason), which give us an idea of how the pitcher’s respective performances project moving forward.
ZiPS Projections 2019: Ponce De Leon vs. Wacha
Level
|
IP
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
LOB%
|
BABIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
Ponce de Leon
|
119.3
|
8.22
|
4.60
|
73.0
|
.305
|
4.15
|
4.33
|
Wacha
|
107.0
|
8.10
|
3.68
|
71.1
|
.315
|
4.56
|
4.43
|
ZiPS does not remember the 2013 postseason because it didn’t watch. It’s a system that doesn’t take into account the human element. It goes by past performance, not veteran proveyness. And in doing so, ZiPS gives us reason to believe what our eyes may being telling as well even if our hearts don’t want to listen. Wacha is in a state of decline and Ponce de Leon might very well be as good of a pitcher in terms of true talent. On paper, the Cardinals don’t appear likely to lose much by calling up Ponce de Leon to fill the rotation spot vacated by the injured Wacha.
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