Was Mike Shildt's Decision to Call on Ryan Helsley a Bad One?

I originally coined the term “Mathenaging” with the intention of having it be the title of a recurring series at Viva El Birdos in which the other writers and I would analyze the decisions and statements of former St. Louis Cardinals manager Mike Matheny. The idea was to look at decisions that were good, bad, and neutral. Because Matheny was a terrible manager, the term and posts in the series came to focus on his unique brand of awfulness. Such was the exasperation caused by Matheny’s horrendous managing that the term gained wider usage.

Blogging about the Cardinals again, I intend to break down the decision-making and statements of new manager Mike Shildt on occasion in the way that I once intended to with Mathenaging. Today, we’re going to delve into Shildt’s decision-making even though I don’t have a fun word play of a title yet. (“Shildtaging” isn’t going to work.) Events merit us evaluating a recent Shildt decision.

The venerable Joe Sheehan provided an example of the half-baked nature of Twitter in response to a Shildt decision during Tuesday’s loss to the Brewers when he tweeted:

I don't want to start a Mike Shildt fight again, but is the way to introduce a rookie pitcher to the majors to bring him in against Christian Yelich in the middle of an inning with two men on?

— Joe Sheehan (@joe_sheehan) April 17, 2019

For those of you who may have missed it, right-hander Ryan Helsley made his major-league debut on Tuesday night when Shildt brought the righty in with two men on base to face Christian Yelich, the reigning National League Most Valuable Player who bats left-handed and is coming off an otherworldly second half in 2018 that has continued into 2019, at least against the Cards. Yelich, clubbed a two-run homer off the rookie in the at-bat in question, giving Milwaukee an 8-0 lead. The Brewers would go on to win 8-2.

Let’s start by recognizing truth. Of course, it’s not best to have the first batter a rookie faces in his MLB debut be Yelich. But that doesn’t mean that Shildt’s decision was not best for the Cardinals at that point in the bottom of the fifth inning of Game 17, given what happened in the lead-up to the decision.

Next, let’s look at the state of the game. The Cardinals were trailing 5-0 in the bottom of the fifth. The Fangraphs win probability chart gave the Brewers a 96.2% win expectancy. While a comeback was possible, it was not probable. The at-bat against Yelich was a low stakes one because the game had been decided. And the homer, which was the worst possible outcome, didn't hurt the Cards' win probability that significantly because Milwaukee's win probability was already so high.

With the game all but decided, what was the state of the St. Louis relief corps? Depleted.

Tuesday was the Cardinals’ fourth game in four days, with a flight from Monterrey, Mexico to Milwaukee, Wisconsin after the first two. In the three-plus games before Helsley officially made his MLB debut, here is the distribution of innings between the St. Louis starters and relievers:

Game	SP IP	RP IP
Saturday, 4/13	6	2
Sunday, 4/14	5	3
Monday, 4/15	3.2	4.1
Tuesday, 4/16	2.2	5.1
Total	17.1	14.2

The table shows that Shildt was required to use relievers because his starters did not eat many innings in the lead-up to Helsley’s debut. Moreover, this four-game stretch is part of a season-long pattern. Through play on Tuesday (thus, including the game in question), the Cardinals ranked 22nd in MLB with 83 innings (4.88 IP per game). St. Louis relievers, on the other hand, had notched the 9th most innings in MLB with 67 (3.94 IP per game). Shildt has had to lean heavily on his bullpen early in the season because the starters have not pitched well.

The following table shows individual reliever usage leading up to Helsley’s debut against Yelich. This shows each reliever’s IP total for the corresponding date. It does not show pitch count. Nor does it reflect whether or not the reliever warmed up (though we know the Cardinals track that). We also don’t know which relievers might have been unavailable for health reasons.

Cardinals RP Usage:  April 7 – April 15, 2019

RP	4/7	4/8	4/9	4/10	4/11	4/12	4/13	4/14	4/15
Jordan Hicks	1.1	1.0				Off		1.1
Andrew Miller	0.1		0.2		1.0	Off		0.1
Dominic Leone			1.0	1.0		Off		1.0	0.2
John Gant		2.0	1.0		1.2	Off		1.0
John Brebbia	1.1		1.1	1.0		Off	1.0		1.2
Tyler Webb				0.1	1.1	Off	0.0		1.1
Giovanny Gallegos					1.1	Off		0.1
Ryan Helsley						Off
Mike Mayers			0.1	0.2		Off	1.0		0.2

Here's how reliever availability appears to break down:

• Mayer was not on the roster because he was placed on the injured list, so he couldn’t be used.

• I think it’s safe to say that Leone was off limits as well, given his back-to-back appearances in the two games prior.

• Brebbia was used for 1 2/3 innings the night before and had been used on five of the previous nine days, so he was likely also not an option.

• If you assume liberal usage of Miller and Hicks in late-and-close situations over the remaining 5 1/2 months, not using either in the bottom of the fifth in a 6-0 ballgame is understandable, given the low probability of a St. Louis win.

Accepting the above relievers weren't options, Shildt’s choice boiled down to multiple choice:

(a)  Stick with Gallegos.

(b)  Call on Helsley.

(c)  Call on the lefty Webb.

Gallegos had already thrown two innings and 43 pitches. He had allowed two singles in the inning and been part of one mound visit. It’s hard to disagree removing him when Yelich came up, given the work he had already put in that game. About the only criticism of pulling Gallegos that I can think of would be thar maybe Shildt should have given him the hook a batter sooner, but that's not very consequential given the game state and doesn't mean that Helsley would not have faced Yelich anyway.

This winnows it down to a choice of who best to face Yelich between Webb and Helsley. There is no comparison between their stuff. Helsley’s is better. Helsley was conditioned to start as well. So Shildt called on the flamethrower to face Yelich first and for multiple innings thereafter. He then called on Webb to mop up the end of a blowout.

It’s hard for me to criticize the decision to call on Helsley, when Shildt did, to make his MLB debut in a game that was essentially unwinnable — even if it was to face the white-hot reigning MVP with ducks on the pond. The stakes were low because of the game state. The Cards needed multiple innings and Helsley was stretched out to provide them. Further, Helsley's pitching after the homer (2 1/3 IP, 4 SO, 0 BB, 0 H, 0 R) suggests that surrendering it didn't rattle the rookie much if at all.

Thus, the backdrop of the appearance makes criticism of the first batter Helsley faced little more than quibbling. (Hey, what is Twitter for?) Sure, asking Helsley to face Yelich as his first MLB batter was not best, but the ideal was not possible at the time. Under the circumstances, Shildt's decision wasn’t a bad one.