Why didn't the St. Louis Cardinals sign Gio Gonzalez?

Nobody wanted Gio Gonazlez.

This isn’t that surprising in a free-agency market in which nobody wants Dallas Keuchel, former Cy Young Award winner. The New York Yankees signed Gonzalez in the spring, but without much of a commitment. They parted ways and Gonzalez was back on the market. On Wednesday, he signed with the Milwaukee Brewers for $2 million plus some creative incentives that allow for Craig Counsel to be Craig Counsel and Gonzalez to get paid as if he didn’t.

News of the contract left some St. Louis Cardinals fans wondering:  Why didn’t the Cardinals sign Gonzalez?

Let’s consider the question, with the reasons for signing Gonzalez and against.

The Cardinals’ starting pitching has been terrible.

We looked at how bad both the Milwaukee and St. Louis rotations had been entering this week’s series between the two clubs. Ben Godar took us on a tour of the horrors that are the stats for the Cardinals’ starters. There are no two ways about it, the St. Louis rotation has been awful this year.

Enter Gonzalez, who was a readily available arm who might reasonably be expected to improve the rotation. The lefty could displace rookie Dakota Hudson, who has options and could go get some work in Triple-A where the games don’t impact the National League pennant race, or a veteran such as Adam Wainwright or Michael Wacha, who could pitch or not someplace else.

The Cardinals could have easily afforded Gonzalez.

$2 million (plus whatever incentives) is a pittance for any MLB club, but especially these Cardinals. For all of the talk about being in it to win it in 2019, the Cards have not shoveled much money into this season.

Part of this is because the team has players on reasonable contracts. Part of this is that ownership is intent on not spending money on player salaries. Part of this is because there aren’t that many palatable options.

Gonzalez isn’t all that palatable, but for such a low price, why not take a chance? Worst comes to worst, he could shift to the bullpen, where the team could use a lefty reliever that manager Mike Shildt could trust in late-and-close situations.

Gonzalez isn’t all that good.

Nobody wanted Gonzalez before last year’s non-waiver trade deadline, either. Or at least not at the Nationals’ asking price. The lefty fell to the Brew Crew, who traded for him in a waiver wire deal.

Why didn’t anybody want Gonzalez? He wasn’t that good. For the Nats, Gonzalez made 27 starts that spanned 145 2/3 innings with 4.57 ERA (111 ERA-), 4.25 FIP (104 FIP-), and 4.44 xFIP (109). In five starts with the Brewers over 25 1/3 innings, the southpaw posted a 2.13 ERA (52 ERA-), 3.63 FIP (88 FIP-), and 4.43 xFIP (109 xFIP-).

Gonzalez is probably a below-average starting pitcher in 2019.

The Cardinals aren’t run by Walt Jocketty, Tony La Russa, and Dave Duncan anymore.

For better and worse, the Cardinals fired Jocketty. La Russa retired and Duncan followed suit. The tried-and-true approach of acquiring an aged pitcher who was once good in the hopes that Duncan will be able to work his magic is no longer the organizational method for cobbling together a rotation on the fly.

Nowadays, the Cardinal way consists of president of baseball operations John Mozeliak picking up his red Memphis phone and hollering “Next starter up!” One of Mozeliak’s minions then makes travel arrangements. The Triple-A pitcher on schedule to start on full rest jumps on the next flight to St. Louis (or some other big-league city) to start for the Cardinals.

The Cardinals probably have pitchers in Triple-A that are as good as or better than Gonzalez.

Consider the following table, which uses the ZiPS projections for a handful of pitchers:

ZiPS Projections:  2019

Pitcher	IP	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP
A	158.1	7.90	3.92	4.38	4.37
B	119.1	8.22	4.60	4.15	4.33
C	132.1	8.23	3.74	4.49	4.51
D	64	9.28	5.34	4.08	4.24
E	137.1	7.58	3.99	4.64	4.73

You might be able to guess which projection is for which pitcher from among the group of Gonzalez, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Austin Gomber, Alex Reyes, and John Gant. But I’m not going to tell you because it doesn’t matter.

Any of these pitchers, who the Cardinals already have in the organization, can reasonably be expected to pitch as well as Gonzalez. And what they lack in veteran proveyness they make up for in potential upside. Each of them has the potential to improve the rotation this year and to continue to start for the Cardinals for years into the future — at a cheaper price now and later.

The Cardinals probably want to exhaust their internal options before looking elsewhere.

Mozeliak and company did this just last year. The Cardinals called on the youngsters when the pitcher injuries piled up. Why would we expect them to do anything different when ineffectiveness is what plagues the rotation?

Moreover, any such trade will probably disappoint us all. It won’t be for an ace. Instead, the Cardinals will probably trade for a back-end innings-eater of the Jake Westbrooke sort. Put otherwise, a pitcher of Gonzalez’s ilk. I wonder if the Mariners will be shopping Mike Leake...