How Does Marcell Ozuna's Home Run Binge Compare to Last Year?

The St. Louis Cardinals traded for Marcell Ozuna during the 2017–18 Hot Stove with the hope that the left fielder would fill the need for a big bat in the middle of the lineup. Ozuna hit the ball hard in 2018, but not for as much power as the club had hoped, because of a balky shoulder. His 2018 line with the Redbirds was a middle-of-the-road .280/.325/.433 (.327 wOBA, 106 wRC+).

Thankfully, Big Bear has come out of offseason hibernation roaring with an impressive power display. Ozuna’s slugging stands in stark contrast to the way he started his inaugural season in St. Louis. To illustrate, let’s compare Ozuna’s slugging in 2018 and 2019, using his seventh home run in each season as a touchstone. The following table contains stats through the game in which Ozuna hit his seventh homer of the season.

Ozuna Through Game of 8th HR:  2018 vs. 2019

Year	Date	G	PA	HR/PA	SLG	ISO
2018	6/13	62	261	32.63	.419	.133
2019	4/17	16	63	8.86	.707	.414
Diff.	-57 days	-46	-198	-23.77	+.288	+.281

Obviously, Ozuna's slugged his way to an exponentially better start this year as compared to last. Rather than months of middling hitting, he has started with a bang. Just look at how much more often he is hitting a homer. If Ozuna's homer binge this April seems vaguely familiar, that’s  because we’ve seen something similar before.

This is the second concentrated homer binge that Ozuna has slugged while wearing the birds on the bat. Big Bear heated up last June, if only for a little bit, clubbing seven dingers. The following table compares his 2018 and 2019 homer binges, from the game of the first homer of his binge through the game of his last.

Ozuna’s HR Binges:  2018 vs. 2019

Year	Dates	G	PA	K%	BB%	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO
2018	6/2–6/16	13	52	9.6	5.8	.396	.442	.875	.479
2019	4/6–4/17	10	41	19.5	7.3	.324	.390	1.027	.703

While the games spanned is similar and so is the homer total, Ozuna's hottest power streak of 2018 doesn't really compare to the one he is currently on. Eight homers in 10 games creates a slugging percentage (SLG) and Isolated Power (ISO, which is essentially SLG minus the singles) far higher than what he posted last June. If Ozuna was red hot last June, he is white hot at the moment.

The epilogue to last season’s seven-dinger binge provides a note of caution for us in the here and now. After hitting his seventh homer in 13 games on June 16, Ozuna did not hit another round-tripper until July 28. This is a sobering reminder that cold streaks can overwhelm hot ones during the 162-game campaign. This fact will have me uneasily counting the days until Ozuna next homers in 2019.

Sobering epilogues aside, this April’s dinger barrage gives us hope that in 2019 we might see the Ozuna the Cardinals sold to us entering 2018. Last season's stretch was a hot streak yet cool compared to the heat emmanating from Big Bear's bat right now. Given the fact that his injured shoulder has seemingly been repaired, his manager is not Mike Matheny, and his hitting coaches are not John Mabry and Bill Mueller, there is reason for optimism.