Are we witnessing an Adam Wainwright 'renaissance'?

Adam Wainwright had a decent game against the Pirates in his last start. The veteran lasted seven innings in which he notched eight strikeouts and issued no walks. Best of all, Wainwright gave up only one home run, which was how Pittsburgh plated their only run against him.

The start had the feel of vintage Wainwright. It was the type of line he would have posted in the days when he was in the conversation for the Cy Young Award six or 10 years ago. And so it’s somewhat understandable that MLB.com ran with a post by Jenifer Langosch under the headline: “Adam Wainwright finding early-career form.”

Langosch opens the post thusly:

With each quality start Adam Wainwright makes — and there have been a team-high five so far — the more his renaissance is looking less like a fluke and more likely to last.

Words have meaning. And “renaissance” is most closely associated with that period in history when there was a revival in art, literature, and learning that led Europeans out of the medieval era and into the modern one. And this is where the premise of Langosch’s post runs off the rails. Wainwright’s 2019 performance not Michaelangelo’s David.

First, let’s look at the way the revival is defined: “quality” starts compared to the other Cardinals starters. It’s a simple stat with some use. A pitcher has a “quality” start if he lasts at least six innings while surrendering three or fewer runs. As a measure of starting pitcher performance, it’s definitely better than the worthless pitching “win,” but it still tells us very little about how the starter actually performed that game or, more importantly, how the starter has performed overall.

Further, the St. Louis rotation has pitched badly. Horribly. It’s been awful. So leading the group in any stat with the word “quality” in it is not all that impressive. One might even consider it damningly faint praise.

Ben Godar pointed out the FiveThirtyEight.com game score tool and used it in his recent post at Viva El Birdos. Game score is also far from perfect, but it gets more into the weeds of how a pitcher pitched by awarding points for strikeouts and taking them away for bad results such as walks and hits. And Wainwright’s game score average in 2019 has been below average, roughly on par with Michael Wacha's.

From Cy Young Award contender to below-average game-score poster. That’s not a Wainwright renaissance in any sense. But perhaps I'm being unfair because I’m not considering the backdrop of 2018, when Wainwright looked washed up, like he simply could not pitch in the majors anymore without embarrassing himself. And that’s likely more the thrust of the Langosch post:  Wainwright no longer embarrassing himself like he did last year.

So let’s compare Wainwright’s 2019 season to his excellent season in 2009, 2013, and 2014, as well as his awful 2018, which caused us to think he was washed up.

Wainwright:  2009, 2013, 2014, 2018, and 2019

Year	IP	K%	BB%	LOB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	fWAR
2009	233	21.9	6.8	80.4	.296	2.63	3.11	3.32	5.2
2013	241.2	22.9	3.7	74.5	.305	2.94	3.10	3.23	6.2
2014	227	19.9	5.6	78	.267	2.38	2.88	3.34	5.0
2018	40.1	22.1	9.9	74.1	.310	4.46	4.28	4.26	0.5
2019	43.1	20.3	7.4	76.3	.273	4.15	4.67	4.16	0.3

Wainwright’s cumulative 2019 stats are about the same as his 2018 stats, when we all thought his career was over. We aren’t witnessing a renaissance so much as a pitcher fighting to keep his head above water at the end of his decline phase. Wainwright isn’t pitching well. His performance to date is mediocre at best. Throw in the fact that he has been comically bad against left-handed hitters and there’s no question that the Wainwright we’re watching this season is much more akin to the one we watched in 2018 than the one who was an ace.

Don’t get me wrong. It’s really fun when we get a throwback performance that reminds of the hurler that Wainwright once was, but those performances don’t change the pitcher that he is. And it won’t be long before the Cardinals have to decide if the good outings are enough to outweigh the bad outings as they try to best the Cubs, Brewers, Pirates, and Reds in a highly competitive National League Central.

Luckily for Wainwright, the organization has bigger problems like Michael Wacha and Dakota Hudson to deal with first. And their doing so might have the effect of making Wainwright a perfectly fine back-end starter, which very well may have been their hope all along.