The St. Louis Cardinals need to remove Michael Wacha from the rotation

The St. Louis Cardinals starting rotation is not good. All five pitchers have struggled. Dakota Hudson has been the worst. Given his 2019 performance and lack of a major-league track record, it’s understandable that fan ire has seemingly been focused on the rookie. Somehow declining veteran Michael Wacha has avoided similar criticism despite his own terrible performance to date.

To be sure, Wacha has contributed to the Cardinals. His resume includes an amazing 2013 debut that culminated in winning the NLCS MVP for his excellent starts against the Dodgers. Since that magical autumn, Wacha has been plagued by injuries (which he, unlike Carlos Martinez, somehow avoids being called out on in the press by the front office) and ineffectiveness (which many in the local media bend over backwards to explain away).

The Wacha of 2013 no longer exists. We will always have Paris and we don’t even need to outfox some Nazis to remember that. Wacha is in the 2019 Cardinals rotation thanks in large part to the veteran proveyness that was a cornerstone of the Mathenaging era. Wacha was once good, so he will stay in the St. Louis rotation even though he is now bad, and has been for a while.

At least Hudson has a chance (however small) of someday being good for the Cardinals after the down payment of MLB experience in the form of shitty 2019 starts. With Wacha, there’s no such hope. Michael Wacha is everything you think Hudson is, but without the potential upside.

Consider the two righties’ respective 2019 performances.

Hudson vs. Wacha:  2019

P	IP	K%	BB%	LOB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	fWAR
Hudson	41	16.0	10.3	73.3	.331	4.61	5.98	4.45	-0.4
Wacha	37	20.7	13.0	74.2	.305	5.35	5.46	4.91	0.0

If I asked you who had bigger control problems in 2019 between Hudson and Wacha before you saw that table, which pitcher would you have named? I would have named Hudson. And I would have been wrong. Wacha has pitched with worse control than Hudson this year. He has walked 22 to Hudson’s 20, against 25 fewer batters faced.

What about giving up home runs? Hudson has gotten killed by the long ball so far this year. The rookie has given up nine round-trippers. Wacha has surrendered seven dingers against 25 fewer batters. The difference is in the share of fly balls that go over the fence. Hudson’s HR/FB rate is 31.0% while Wacha’s is 18.4%. Both of those are bad, but Hudson’s is comically terrible. That’s why Hudson’s FIP is worse than Wacha’s, while the rookie has the better xFIP.

The Cardinals have the talent to win the National League Central this year, but they won’t be able to do it with the starting rotation in its present form. The path of least resistance is to option Hudson to Triple-A and call up Austin Gomber or Daniel Ponce de Leon. But there is little reason to believe that Wacha will get better in 2019 or contribute to the Cardinals in 2020 or beyond. So the right move now and later is for the Cardinals to remove Wacha from the rotation. We’ll always have Paris.