Does Mike Shildt need to rethink the St. Louis Cardinals lineup?

Protection. It goes back to the days of Tony La Russa. A regular focus of the St. Louis Cardinals roster was who would protect Albert Pujols. The focus was typically on who batted after Pujols.

So far in 2019, Cardinals manager Mike Shildt has made protecting his middle-of-the-order hitters a priority.  Shildt appears to understand that there is no better protection for a hitter than that provided by runners on the base paths in front of him. He has done so by placing the Cards’ most recognizable bats at the top of the lineup.

Matt Carpenter and Paul Goldschmidt are excellent hitters. Both hit for power. They also get on base at an elite rate. Traditionally, their slugging would earmark them for the middle of the lineup. But Shildt has placed them first and second in the order to leverage their on-base prowess.

By batting the Cardinals’ two best hitters first and second in the order, Shildt intends to help the team’s offense because:

1. The Cardinals’ two best hitters make the most plate appearances on the team, which rings every drop of production out of their bats.

2. The players who get on base the most will provide more opportunities for the middle of the lineup to bat with runners on base, which leverages their production to benefit their teammates.

The first point is common sense. A team should want its best hitters to bat as often as possible because they will get more plate appearances as a team with elite production. Over the long haul of a 162-game season, this will help the team score more runs.

The second point is more indirect. For a backdrop, consider MLB hitters as a whole. The following table compares how all of Major League Baseball hit in the 2018 regular season with the bases empty (empty), overall, and with runners on base (ROB).

MLB 2018:  Bases Empty, Overall, and Runners On Base

Split	K%	BB%	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
Empty	23.2	7.8	.241	.308	.402	.310	93
Overall	22.3	8.5	.248	.318	.409	.315	97
ROB	21.0	9.3	.258	.332	.420	.322	101

The above table helps illustrate the general rule when it comes to hitting. Major-leaguers enjoy more success when they bat with runners on base in front of them. This isn’t terribly surprising, as it’s reflective of conventional wisdom.

Unfortunately, the approach has experienced early hiccups. Neither Carpenter nor Goldschmidt has hit like one would expect early. Goldschmidt has nonetheless posted a healthy but not great OBP of .350. Carpenter’s struggles have been more pronounced, as reflected by his .318 OBP.

Further complicating matters is the fact that the league-wide tendency to hit better with men on has not necessarily translated to the Cardinals lineup so far this season. Let’s look at how Paul DeJong and Marcell Ozuna have hit in the middle of the lineup when the batters in front of them get on base as compared to when they don’t.

Paul DeJong 2019:  Bases Empty, Overall, and Runners On Base

Split	K%	BB%	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
Empty	12.5	14.6	.370	.469	.654	.470	199
Overall	16.8	11.7	.321	.408	.564	.411	161
ROB	21.7	8.4	.267	.337	.467	.344	116

Marcell Ozuna 2019:  Bases Empty, Overall, and Runners On Base

Split	K%	BB%	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
Empty	18.8	10.1	.230	.319	.492	.344	116
Overall	20.5	10.2	.236	.319	.514	.347	118
ROB	21.6	10.3	.241	.320	.529	.349	120

As you can see, Ozuna’s line follows the MLB-wide trend of hitting a bit better with runners on base, though to a slightly lesser degree. However, DeJong’s is directly contrary to the league-wide pattern. DeJong has hit like the second coming of Albert Pujols in 2019 with the bases empty and a good but not great hitter with men on base. He has been far worse with ducks on the pond.

To Shildt’s credit, he has approached lineup construction in a progressive way. But it has not worked out as planned, even though the Cardinals offense has been productive. It might be time to shuffle the lineup in an attempt to truly realize the OBP frontloading strategy. Perhaps giving Carpenter and Goldschmidt more protection in the form of more opportunities to bat with runners on the bases might help jumpstart their offensive production and create the type of cascading the effect across the lineup that the manager is seeking.