Are we witnessing an Adam Wainwright 'renaissance'?

Adam Wainwright had a decent game against the Pirates in his last start. The veteran lasted seven innings in which he notched eight strikeouts and issued no walks. Best of all, Wainwright gave up only one home run, which was how Pittsburgh plated their only run against him.

The start had the feel of vintage Wainwright. It was the type of line he would have posted in the days when he was in the conversation for the Cy Young Award six or 10 years ago. And so it’s somewhat understandable that MLB.com ran with a post by Jenifer Langosch under the headline: “Adam Wainwright finding early-career form.”

Langosch opens the post thusly:

With each quality start Adam Wainwright makes — and there have been a team-high five so far — the more his renaissance is looking less like a fluke and more likely to last.

Words have meaning. And “renaissance” is most closely associated with that period in history when there was a revival in art, literature, and learning that led Europeans out of the medieval era and into the modern one. And this is where the premise of Langosch’s post runs off the rails. Wainwright’s 2019 performance not Michaelangelo’s David.

First, let’s look at the way the revival is defined: “quality” starts compared to the other Cardinals starters. It’s a simple stat with some use. A pitcher has a “quality” start if he lasts at least six innings while surrendering three or fewer runs. As a measure of starting pitcher performance, it’s definitely better than the worthless pitching “win,” but it still tells us very little about how the starter actually performed that game or, more importantly, how the starter has performed overall.

Further, the St. Louis rotation has pitched badly. Horribly. It’s been awful. So leading the group in any stat with the word “quality” in it is not all that impressive. One might even consider it damningly faint praise.

Ben Godar pointed out the FiveThirtyEight.com game score tool and used it in his recent post at Viva El Birdos. Game score is also far from perfect, but it gets more into the weeds of how a pitcher pitched by awarding points for strikeouts and taking them away for bad results such as walks and hits. And Wainwright’s game score average in 2019 has been below average, roughly on par with Michael Wacha's.

From Cy Young Award contender to below-average game-score poster. That’s not a Wainwright renaissance in any sense. But perhaps I'm being unfair because I’m not considering the backdrop of 2018, when Wainwright looked washed up, like he simply could not pitch in the majors anymore without embarrassing himself. And that’s likely more the thrust of the Langosch post:  Wainwright no longer embarrassing himself like he did last year.

So let’s compare Wainwright’s 2019 season to his excellent season in 2009, 2013, and 2014, as well as his awful 2018, which caused us to think he was washed up.

Wainwright:  2009, 2013, 2014, 2018, and 2019

Year	IP	K%	BB%	LOB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	fWAR
2009	233	21.9	6.8	80.4	.296	2.63	3.11	3.32	5.2
2013	241.2	22.9	3.7	74.5	.305	2.94	3.10	3.23	6.2
2014	227	19.9	5.6	78	.267	2.38	2.88	3.34	5.0
2018	40.1	22.1	9.9	74.1	.310	4.46	4.28	4.26	0.5
2019	43.1	20.3	7.4	76.3	.273	4.15	4.67	4.16	0.3

Wainwright’s cumulative 2019 stats are about the same as his 2018 stats, when we all thought his career was over. We aren’t witnessing a renaissance so much as a pitcher fighting to keep his head above water at the end of his decline phase. Wainwright isn’t pitching well. His performance to date is mediocre at best. Throw in the fact that he has been comically bad against left-handed hitters and there’s no question that the Wainwright we’re watching this season is much more akin to the one we watched in 2018 than the one who was an ace.

Don’t get me wrong. It’s really fun when we get a throwback performance that reminds of the hurler that Wainwright once was, but those performances don’t change the pitcher that he is. And it won’t be long before the Cardinals have to decide if the good outings are enough to outweigh the bad outings as they try to best the Cubs, Brewers, Pirates, and Reds in a highly competitive National League Central.

Luckily for Wainwright, the organization has bigger problems like Michael Wacha and Dakota Hudson to deal with first. And their doing so might have the effect of making Wainwright a perfectly fine back-end starter, which very well may have been their hope all along.

The St. Louis Cardinals need to remove Michael Wacha from the rotation

The St. Louis Cardinals starting rotation is not good. All five pitchers have struggled. Dakota Hudson has been the worst. Given his 2019 performance and lack of a major-league track record, it’s understandable that fan ire has seemingly been focused on the rookie. Somehow declining veteran Michael Wacha has avoided similar criticism despite his own terrible performance to date.

To be sure, Wacha has contributed to the Cardinals. His resume includes an amazing 2013 debut that culminated in winning the NLCS MVP for his excellent starts against the Dodgers. Since that magical autumn, Wacha has been plagued by injuries (which he, unlike Carlos Martinez, somehow avoids being called out on in the press by the front office) and ineffectiveness (which many in the local media bend over backwards to explain away).

The Wacha of 2013 no longer exists. We will always have Paris and we don’t even need to outfox some Nazis to remember that. Wacha is in the 2019 Cardinals rotation thanks in large part to the veteran proveyness that was a cornerstone of the Mathenaging era. Wacha was once good, so he will stay in the St. Louis rotation even though he is now bad, and has been for a while.

At least Hudson has a chance (however small) of someday being good for the Cardinals after the down payment of MLB experience in the form of shitty 2019 starts. With Wacha, there’s no such hope. Michael Wacha is everything you think Hudson is, but without the potential upside.

Consider the two righties’ respective 2019 performances.

Hudson vs. Wacha:  2019

P	IP	K%	BB%	LOB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	fWAR
Hudson	41	16.0	10.3	73.3	.331	4.61	5.98	4.45	-0.4
Wacha	37	20.7	13.0	74.2	.305	5.35	5.46	4.91	0.0

If I asked you who had bigger control problems in 2019 between Hudson and Wacha before you saw that table, which pitcher would you have named? I would have named Hudson. And I would have been wrong. Wacha has pitched with worse control than Hudson this year. He has walked 22 to Hudson’s 20, against 25 fewer batters faced.

What about giving up home runs? Hudson has gotten killed by the long ball so far this year. The rookie has given up nine round-trippers. Wacha has surrendered seven dingers against 25 fewer batters. The difference is in the share of fly balls that go over the fence. Hudson’s HR/FB rate is 31.0% while Wacha’s is 18.4%. Both of those are bad, but Hudson’s is comically terrible. That’s why Hudson’s FIP is worse than Wacha’s, while the rookie has the better xFIP.

The Cardinals have the talent to win the National League Central this year, but they won’t be able to do it with the starting rotation in its present form. The path of least resistance is to option Hudson to Triple-A and call up Austin Gomber or Daniel Ponce de Leon. But there is little reason to believe that Wacha will get better in 2019 or contribute to the Cardinals in 2020 or beyond. So the right move now and later is for the Cardinals to remove Wacha from the rotation. We’ll always have Paris.

Does Mike Shildt need to rethink the St. Louis Cardinals lineup?

Protection. It goes back to the days of Tony La Russa. A regular focus of the St. Louis Cardinals roster was who would protect Albert Pujols. The focus was typically on who batted after Pujols.

So far in 2019, Cardinals manager Mike Shildt has made protecting his middle-of-the-order hitters a priority.  Shildt appears to understand that there is no better protection for a hitter than that provided by runners on the base paths in front of him. He has done so by placing the Cards’ most recognizable bats at the top of the lineup.

Matt Carpenter and Paul Goldschmidt are excellent hitters. Both hit for power. They also get on base at an elite rate. Traditionally, their slugging would earmark them for the middle of the lineup. But Shildt has placed them first and second in the order to leverage their on-base prowess.

By batting the Cardinals’ two best hitters first and second in the order, Shildt intends to help the team’s offense because:

1. The Cardinals’ two best hitters make the most plate appearances on the team, which rings every drop of production out of their bats.

2. The players who get on base the most will provide more opportunities for the middle of the lineup to bat with runners on base, which leverages their production to benefit their teammates.

The first point is common sense. A team should want its best hitters to bat as often as possible because they will get more plate appearances as a team with elite production. Over the long haul of a 162-game season, this will help the team score more runs.

The second point is more indirect. For a backdrop, consider MLB hitters as a whole. The following table compares how all of Major League Baseball hit in the 2018 regular season with the bases empty (empty), overall, and with runners on base (ROB).

MLB 2018:  Bases Empty, Overall, and Runners On Base

Split	K%	BB%	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
Empty	23.2	7.8	.241	.308	.402	.310	93
Overall	22.3	8.5	.248	.318	.409	.315	97
ROB	21.0	9.3	.258	.332	.420	.322	101

The above table helps illustrate the general rule when it comes to hitting. Major-leaguers enjoy more success when they bat with runners on base in front of them. This isn’t terribly surprising, as it’s reflective of conventional wisdom.

Unfortunately, the approach has experienced early hiccups. Neither Carpenter nor Goldschmidt has hit like one would expect early. Goldschmidt has nonetheless posted a healthy but not great OBP of .350. Carpenter’s struggles have been more pronounced, as reflected by his .318 OBP.

Further complicating matters is the fact that the league-wide tendency to hit better with men on has not necessarily translated to the Cardinals lineup so far this season. Let’s look at how Paul DeJong and Marcell Ozuna have hit in the middle of the lineup when the batters in front of them get on base as compared to when they don’t.

Paul DeJong 2019:  Bases Empty, Overall, and Runners On Base

Split	K%	BB%	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
Empty	12.5	14.6	.370	.469	.654	.470	199
Overall	16.8	11.7	.321	.408	.564	.411	161
ROB	21.7	8.4	.267	.337	.467	.344	116

Marcell Ozuna 2019:  Bases Empty, Overall, and Runners On Base

Split	K%	BB%	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
Empty	18.8	10.1	.230	.319	.492	.344	116
Overall	20.5	10.2	.236	.319	.514	.347	118
ROB	21.6	10.3	.241	.320	.529	.349	120

As you can see, Ozuna’s line follows the MLB-wide trend of hitting a bit better with runners on base, though to a slightly lesser degree. However, DeJong’s is directly contrary to the league-wide pattern. DeJong has hit like the second coming of Albert Pujols in 2019 with the bases empty and a good but not great hitter with men on base. He has been far worse with ducks on the pond.

To Shildt’s credit, he has approached lineup construction in a progressive way. But it has not worked out as planned, even though the Cardinals offense has been productive. It might be time to shuffle the lineup in an attempt to truly realize the OBP frontloading strategy. Perhaps giving Carpenter and Goldschmidt more protection in the form of more opportunities to bat with runners on the bases might help jumpstart their offensive production and create the type of cascading the effect across the lineup that the manager is seeking.